There is no webinar today, so I thought in my coffee break I would just blog some thoughts. Overall, it has been a positive week for us all.
On the community side:
1.) The broker has agreed to first tier premier liquidity providers.
2.) The web host has managed to make the “How to join MAM” page publicly available.
On the forecast side:
The FOMC re-commenced the tightening(normalization) of monetary policy and confirmed our expectations that rates would continue to go up. This is in contrast to the all the naysayers saying the next move was down and that the Fed would make “policy mistakes” by raising rates. In addition, the FOMC’s newly released economic projections reinforce our expectations that the market miscalculated the upward risks to inflation and is misjudging how fast the Fed will move progressing forward, particularly as inflation risks overshooting. Bear in mind that these projections do not begin to factor in fiscal stimulus from Trump (we will cover this in more detail at the weekends webinar as I feel rates will shoot up even faster than the dot plots indicate).
Furthermore, Retail sales slowed in line with our expectations and we correctly guessed production in the US would contract as well as the reason why. In the Eurozone, while the market consensus predicted slowing growth in production, we were correct in predicting a decline.
Overall I am happy with the accuracy of our financial modelling and predictions communicated on Monday’s webinar, but what makes me happier is seeing our fundamental predictions come true as the year comes to an end. Particularly our call on USD firmness and Equity performance. These were calls made and held constant throughout the year in spite of many calling for a USD crash and a recession. Interestingly enough while we held our conviction and stuck to our data supported calls, many of the “doomsayers” kept shifting their opinion from one camp to the other (I guess they were confused and/or lacked experience). Anyway, the point I wanted to make is that earlier today the Dollar Index, reached the highest levels since Jan 2013 and US Stock markets are near record highs. Hardly the actions of a “weakening dollar” and “recession”. So I guess the results show who was fundamentally right. We could go on more with exact details, but time is short and I have to go to my next meeting.
On that lovely note, I will now stop typing. The MAM is now publicly open and we intend to commence trading shortly after 9th January 2017. If you are not already signed up, I suggest you do not delay as confirming documents etc may take a longer time as we enter the holiday season.
Hope you are all having a good week,