Well unfortunately for a second consecutive week, results have been negative and we are now down 6% so far this month. Everyone keeps telling me not to be harsh on myself citing that a bad month was bound to come eventually. I know that the biggest certainty in trading, is that you wont win every month and that you can not be blamed for things out of your control, that is not what is annoying me. I did not want to end the year with a red month and it seems that everything is ensuring that it ends that way at this point. This is what is annoying me. Anyway let me continue:
The week did get off to a promising start and on Monday we had not only reversed all the losses of the month so far, but also held an overall gain of nearly 2% for the month, but that went wrong very shortly. I have given daily coverage of these events, so do not really feel like repeating them but in short this collapse in hydrocarbon and commodity prices has effectively hindered all of our trades this week.
There was some positive news this morning as Chinese Industrial Production is MUCH better than expected. 6.2% vs 5.6%, which will give the commodity markets some much needed relief as we go into next week.
So before I leave for the day just a few highlights:
- I think oil will recover slightly early next week on the back on this news and some retracement. This will bode well for us.
- I expect USD strength to return in the build up to the FOMC meeting.
- I expect that hydrocarbon prices will effect the FOMC decision making and while as things stand, they will still raise (in my opinion) but they will include concern over it in a Dovish statement that accompanies the rate decision. (This could have a similar effect to what happened when the RBNZ raised rates earlier this week).
- I will come out and honesty say that I do not expect us to meet our monthly target this month and will be happy with a small profit at this point.
As for our Etoro activities:
1.) I think our current open trades will give us some value early next week, assuming that oil does not crash further (Brent fell over 13% last week).
2.) I do not see myself opening any new trades until I am done handling the current ones.
There was one positive in trading this week. Our first week of options trades did very well as summarized below:
11:50 PM PUT AUDJPY – Success
12:30 AM PUT GBPAUD – could not be executed
9:30 AM PUT EURGBP or any Eur pair – Success
11:00 PM PUT AUDUSD – Success
8:00 PM PUT NZDUSD – Failure
12:30 AM PUT AUDUSD – Success
1:30 PM CALL USDJPY – Success
1:30 PM Call USDJPY – Success
3:00 PM Call USDJPY – Success
Giving us an overall win rate of 87.5%.
Those who used the 65% win 20% refund mode, and split the trades into equal amounts would have had a return of:
(7/8)*1.65 + (1/8)*.25 = 1.444 + 0.031 = 1.47 or 47% gain this week. Which is excellent in my opinion.
Anyway lets stay positive and hope for a better next week,