Hope you are all well and have had a good weekend after our chaotic end to the last week. I had some time to think about how last week ended, while in the car today and cheered up a lot. I realized that after weeks of great performances one week with an overall 0.5% loss is not the end of the world and while it is annoying to come to the end of a hot streak when the fundamentals for employment went just as your predicted, it also is a position from which we can easily recover with very good profit next week as long as we stick to our plan and nothing out of the ordinary happens. All things considered we are actually in quite a safe position and I think we need to stay positive and look at what went right rather than what went wrong and how we can build on this. At the end of the day losses are still unrealized and I have full confidence that they can turn around.
Firstly, the weekly outlook:
Keeping it brief, I expect:
USD strength to re-emerge in the build up to the Fed meeting on the 15th.
The RBNZ to cut rates on Wednesday.
US consumer confidence and retail sales to be respectable.
Aussie employment to show weakness.
I also fear that Chinese data (trade balance) will disappoint and help strengthen the Yen and other haven assets.
Now a few more important things to discuss:
A.) Trade ideas:
1.) Trade ideas for next week are formulated and will be posted on the forum.
1.) Options ideas for next week are formulated and will be posted on the forum shortly.
2.) CFD trade ideas for next week and formulated and will be posted on the forum.
I spent a lot of time and effort on these and I am looking forward to them.
Etoro called me today and told me that they have enrolled me into their PI program. They said it was their standard practice and they have gone ahead with it. I do not see the star next to my name yet but I want to assure you of two things.
1.) It will NOT change how I trade. I made this utterly clear on the phone.
2.) To make sure there is no conflict of interest, I have decided a great idea on what to do with the money (whenever any gets in – which might be never knowing my risk score.) I am going to make it part of our novice trader program, where each time I get some, I will split it between 5-10 of the foundation graduates (will send via paypal) on the forums so they can try their own trade ideas with real money at no cost to them. Because face it, learning from mistakes is expensive education in trading.
Since we have no say in this matter, I think that this is the best thing that we can do and that we can actually make a positive out of this for the community. Of course, I would like to know the community’s thoughts on this.
I think one of the most important things in analysis is to be consistent. Sure you change your opinion if you have good reason to, that is the right thing to do (i.e. Admit mistakes.) What is annoying is seeing these so called experts who change their opinion every 10 minutes and then preach it like it is gospel. Amazingly, they never do this for upcoming events and its always for the previous day. A word of advice to these people. You don’t sound as clever as you think you do when you act this way. Respect yourself and stay consistent.
D.) My attitude:
I realise that in the last few days I snap sometimes when people ask me the same question over and over again, but that is because quite simply I get annoyed when people think that I have no purpose but to sit around waiting to repeat myself over and over. I have a life and things to do much like the rest of you. I am not just PIXELS on a screen. I am a human being. Here was my day today.
Wake up at 6 Am.
Drive to work.
Work some more.
Work even more.
Conduct fundamental and technical analysis of FX pairs for next weeks trade ideas and outlooks.
Look at MA’s of pairs and see what comes up in the economic calendar that can make them good ultra short term options trades.
Conduct technical analysis for CFDs equities and commodities and look at their current news and balance sheets for trade ideas
Post these all on the forum.
Start to go through my hundreds of messages.
Post on the blog to update everyone.
As you can see, I put a lot of time into this and I snap because sometimes I just feel taken for granted. I know I might be over-sensitive at times (especially given the fact that I get great support from most of you), but that is just how I am. I should try to ignore the exceptions, but I just can’t. For me manners are very important. They go up with there with being open and honest. So please bear this in mind the next time you try to rush me or ask me things over and over again. To you its a casual few seconds on the keyboard, to me its a lot more time and effort. Then again I am probably wasting my time, because the people who do this probably will not even read this.
Anyway rant over, thanks for reading and wish us all a great week,