Trade Ideas

Some thoughts and issues for Friday 6th November 2015

First thought: Well it seems today I can not chat as effectively with the Etoro community as new messages are not showing for last 15 hours (only on older threads). I can not tell if people are messaging me, or posting new comments etc. It is really concerning. Makes me even worry about opening trades today as with NFP’s this afternoon, the market will be volatile and what will happen if other services fail, like last Friday when everyone got locked out of the trader for hours…

Second Thought: Today is the ADP NFP data. Following Yellen’s comments and a week of very SOLID Us data, strong data here will really throw weight behind the gains of the USD.  Going into it, I notice some things:

1.) Yesterdays Non-Farm productivity, which is strongly linked with Non Farm Payrolls was far stronger than expected. Instead of a 0.2% decline, there was a 1.6% improvement (a massive difference). Also the previous result was revised upwards to 3.5%, this would suggest that NFPs may be strong.

2.) However, bear in mind unemployment is now close to 5%, which is not as bad as it was. This means that any change in NFPs would always be smaller as there is a smaller amount of the population looking for jobs. So even slightly smaller numbers below 200K would have a bulllish impact.

3.) Strong data could effect the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs significantly, as the ECB has refereed to possible easing at the end of the year, while the BOE cut its inflation forecasts yesterday.

If played right, there is a lot of money to be made here. If mistaken there is a lot to lose.

Those are my main thoughts as we go into the day

Mohammed

 

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