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Contemplating cutting the pound trades and staying away from sterling

All this months economic data confirmed our fundamental assumptions that the Uk economy is outperforming others in the developed world:

1.) Unemployment is at 10 year lows.

2.) Inflation is significanty better than expected.

3.) GDP growth is the highest among european countries and second highest in the developed world.

In spite of this sentiment is weak on the pound due to the lack of consistancy from Governor Carney and the BOE. The man who a few months ago rocked markets with comments of the time to raise rates in the UK coming closer and fastser than markets could anticipate now says the compleyte opposite despite the UK improving in that time. In hind sight the reason is clear. He is a media (word starts with wh) who craved attention when the FED were getting all the headlines after they began to declare intention to normalize rates. The pity is, i took his comments then at face value thinking hat there aas no way the govenor of a central bank like the BOE would be so petty. Unfortunately i was wrong and i see now tjat i should have realised that a man who wants to even stand out for serving 5 years instead of 8 as tradition states is more interested in being a rock star than a banker. Among these data leaks and a central bank that is more interssted in headlines than consistancy of monetary policy, is it any wonder that the pound is in turmoil?

Really considering cutting these trades at the earliest chance (even if it means a loss) and never touching sterling again. Out of our last 52 trades on etoro, 50 were profitable in under a week. The 50 that did not invovle the pound. I think im spotting a trend here in what throws the spanner in our analysis.

10 Comments

  1. Hi Mo! Thanks for update!

    Just all the leaks might be a sign that one should leave the sterling alone for now.

    How about the ninja now going into us releases and BOJ tomorrow? Anyone having thoughts? Would it be wise to get out before the action starts? I believe it will break 119 for good today.. But as always.. Something might just come along and ruin it.. Oil, plane crash or whatever:p

    Cheers!

    1. I firmly believe the BOJ will boost stimulus very shortly. If not tomorrow then at the next meeting. It has to. This strong yen is killing and negating the litte that they have achieved thus far. Fundamentally if they do not do more soon, then their fragile economy will fall back into ruin.

      1. Abe has a history of watching the exchange rates closely. He definitely has to do something. However, not sure that BoJ can do more QE. Aren’t they already printing $660bn a year?

        As far as the sterling goes, you are absolutely right. However, the losses of those who survived Dec and Jan are still big. Personally, I am aiming for GBPJPY = 175 and GBPCHF = 147.

        1. For those who survived, the current sls seem pretty safe and with refunding trades, they should actually wait to make a profit, otherwise what was the point in all the pain. We still have spare liquid on the side for other short term trades, which we have been doing to help alleviate the stress.

  2. Well thank god not every currency is like the pound then, so there is some believe in the market :). I cut my losses on GPB trades ages ago, thats why i survived the downtrend, but on the other hand I am still deep in the red (my own fault ofcourse), but i do hope you keep on trading on eToro as well. Hopefully I will open a HotForex account also, but I isnt that userfriendly :). Cheers mate on the good trades! Keep up the good work! Greets Ken.

  3. Hi Mo! Agree completely with you even though I cut those trades also weeks ago. I tried to refund otherwise. Guess that should be considered as well, as You realy cannot know what will happen with the pound.
    Btw started today the journey on HF with you.
    Cheers , Thomas

  4. Hello Mo and thanks for the update !
    I am survivor :)…..and the situation now looks much better .
    My opinion is that we must fight with sterling till this trade goes in green .We must show and proof to all people who was screaming and spamming that patience and discipline combained with you expirience and view is the wining strategy .

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