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Quick update: 29th Jan 2016

Man this is so troublesome to do from aphone, but here it goes:

Etoro:

Eurgbp closed at 10% profit on Etoro. Now all trades are closed except our two legacy gbpchf and gbpjpy trades which are doing much better. Having gained over 1500 pips recovery. The januarys losses of 35% have now been reversed into a gain of 14%. Which means we can now work towards recovery of December’s disaster.

Hf:

Account continues to be in the profit despite this being a harsh first month. We had some bad luck woth a large usdjpy trade, which sld and ate away into profits. Had it not Sl’d it would have been MEGA green (40k profit). But hats ok I guess it was a calculated risk which just did not come to fruition. None the less, we end our first month with gains in both balance and equity, which is remarkable considering everything worked against us in the first 3 weeks of the month. I would have been happy to break even, so a tw figure percentage profit makes me delighted.

Food for thought:

Boj has acted and cut rates to not only weaken Yen but also make it less attractive to hold. I suspect their intention was to reduce the appeal of the jpy as a haven asset much like the smb did with the chf by the use of negative rates. Is this perhaps the BOJs weapon of choice? Negative cuts to deter speculation on the JPY? If so i need to revise my usdjpy forecasts ( not in a straight line) for the year to:

Q1 2016 -123

Q2 2016 -125

Q3 206-127

Q4 2016 -130

I assume one further cut from the BOJ and 3 further rises from the Fed.

On another note:

Have got to say the fundamentals coming together the last two weeks has been great for my confidence and has helped me lunch the dozen new profit yielding trades you have seen in the last two weeks. After january’s opening i was left shattered wondering how my way of doing things that had worked for so long had been shattered. Then i realised it was quite frankly an anomaly and everyone got shattered (even those with 5-6 accounts doing different things), not just me.

Finally a long overdue purge of the community:

Going to permanent ban a few people who abandoned me this last month. Not ones who left because of choice (that is perfectly fine) but i mean the people who started jumping ship to the first spammers who started their nonsense ob my wall. That was very bad from them in my opinion to support such behaviour how they did and it was very painful for me to see that betrayal. As a result they are no longer welcome to the forums or any other services I do. Hope it was worth it for them. Will take care of it when I get back to Dubai.

To everyone else, hope you are having a great day. We are looking healthier and soon look ready to begin the ascent back to where we were and beyond.

Mohammed

27 Comments

  1. Thanks Mo, really appreciate you doing this. Onwards and upwards as they say!!!

    Have a safe trip back to Dubai and a great weekend!!

    Ross

  2. Thanks Mo, your success rate of trades is incredible! I guess the BoJ had enough fire power indeed πŸ˜‰

    After my entry in late December and a 55% drawdown, I entered the realm of profits overnight. Nice to see some green appearing on my screen.
    I also allocated my funds on HF to you. However, it will take until next Monday for them to be active.

    Of course, a lot of community members effectively lost their account due to this drawdown. My apologies to them for my celebrating. I can imagine that if your initial deposit gets multiplied with a factor 10 followed by a bad period, that you simply cannot add a 25% buffer.
    I am not an experienced trader, but can we do something to minimize the consequences of a similar situation in the future? For instance, is it a good idea to cut every trade with a temporary -100% result (regardless of the fundamentals) and wait to re-engage until a reversal happens? It avoids the danger of one trade destroying an entire account. Moreover, since your fundamentals are so good, it offers the potential of even more profits.

    1. Thats why in Mid december i warned everyone that a deposit might be necessary and that those who could not afford to should manually close those trades. I warned both here and on Etoro. Of course many people ignored it or chose to risk it and the result was they were out of synch. I can be open and honest with people. If they then still want to risk it afer not taking the honest advice, there is nothing I can do about that unfortunatey.

      Also something like this is always a risk with us. There are NO other people like us on Etoro. We go for 1,000s of percent a year. We consider a 10% month a failure. We can never be a 100% safe account. We leave that to the people who make 1% a month and then want to compare themseves to guys who take 200 imed the risk they do. This is the way it has to be for high returns. We can not go for 4000 percent in a year and not take big risks. I wish we could but we can not. Its easy for people like to critisize because they are not the same as us, they have never tirned 10k into 300k. We try to make wealth, they try to guard it.

      1. I realize that your approach is risky. If it were that easy to turn 10k in 300k, everyone would do it!
        I was just thinking that if you have a two year horizon, periods like this will happen for sure. Without doubt.

        Yeah, I had not seen that advice since I entered later. That’s reassuring!

        Safe travels.

        1. The thing is that what you have to remember here as well is that the circumastances that strengthened the Yen were bascially the most random things. In 6 weeks we had:
          1.) russia going into syria
          2.) turkey shooting down a russian plane
          3.) russia threatening turkey
          4.) sanctions on iran lifted
          5.) oil hitting a 15 year low
          6.) commodities doing the same
          7.) circuit breakers in shanghai throwing the markets into panic before being suspended.
          8.) a warmer than usual winter
          9.) saudi tensions with iran
          10.) uk bringing forward the eu referendum
          11) boj easig in dec by a tiny amiunt and saying no more
          12) draghi losig control of the ecb in december and failing to deliver
          13) opec abandoning its quotas

          Do you know how likely one of those qas to happen let alone all 13 at the same time? Anyone high risk got burned. The only people who didnt get burned were the ones who make 1% a month because they only had 1% invested.
          I repeat. We are not normal. There is NOBODY with the same targets as us. They are not in our league as far as ambition goes, no matter how much they wish to dellude themselves.

          1. I need to get this off my chest!!
            When I started forex trading, I had no idea what I was doing. I came to the conclusion it was just gambling. Somebody on etoro directed me to Mo as proof that it wasn’t gambling…I disagreed and said Mo was guessing as much as I was guessing. But to prove I was correct, I said I would copy Mo.

            How WRONG I was!!! I don’t think I’ve ever trusted somebody (especially who I’ve not personally met) as much as Mo. His knowledge and analysis coupled with his honesty and integrity is very very rare to come across. Now, I only joined the group at the start of December so I too was (still am) greatly in the red on our trades. Mo then gave perfect advice: Get out or add more money to avoid hitting 95%. Although I’m not the brightest, I do understand that I shouldn’t play with money I can’t afford to lose. Therefore, hitting the 95% wasn’t really affecting me although still undesirable. I added more like Mo suggested.

            I sit here today with the account turning round and this guy who I’ve never met, sending a giddiness to my stomach when I see an email entitled ‘The Thoughts of Ohemgee’.

            As Mo has indicated, nobody can predict such world events and certainly not all at once but I’m fully prepared to hit 95% knowing I can afford to…but also on the flip side, we a striving for something great and hitting percentages that are truly life changing. Oh, and, i’m learning so much daily which is worth as much as money in my book!

            I’m very thank to be part of this group and blessed to have stumbled across Mo (apart from the Liverpool bit haha!)

            Cheers,
            Charlie

  3. Hi Mohammed,

    really can’t deny that I’m relieved that BOJ took this step like you outguessed. If that’s the new direction I guess I’ll be able to join you at HF PAMM soon, i.e. in Q1 LOL. Too much money locked in my JPY trades …

    What BNF9000 suggests is comprehensible, but in my eyes not realistic. In fact it is the challenge when to cut losses while fundamentals tell you the opposite. I’m often thinking of that one question in your foundation graduate test πŸ˜‰

    However, what I would like to put forward for discussion is that maybe an analysis and foresight which is too long-term might be contraproductive:
    I’m sporadically reading the thoughts of one of those “recession kids” and while I myself too think that there can’t be continuous growth and that we should also take into consideration that sooner or later we might face an economic crisis, for my taste he is too fixated on an downward trend. Same refers to the opposite: How can we be sure that there still is growth throughout the whole year? I mean, so much can happen. I sense more and more instability and my association in terms of worldwide growth is more that of a parabolic arc. To cut a long story short, I think generally we will be on the safer side if our analysis is more short- to middle-term. What do you think?

    Wish you a relaxing weekend
    Isabella

    1. Short term is really gambling for me, as O can never know what can happen. Short term never wins this game unless you get lucky and get out fast.

      With regards to being in a recession, there will be warnings before something like this happens. 1.) condifence willdrop (its at record highs). 2.) employment will drop (its at ten year highs) 3.) home sales will drop (also at 10 year highs) etc.
      with regards to these recession kids, they have no clue. Of course out of 5 accounts they got one right. One lives with his parents in estonia (look at the who is info on his domain) and barely just hot puberty he can claim he worked for a broker for decades as much as he wants, im sure even Estonia has labour laws against 9 year olds working. The other one nearly got wiped out yesterday and martingaled oil and is praying now that it does not continue to rise to save him.
      Neither of them have the integrity, patience or even background to know the first thing about markets. Take what they say with a pinch of salt.

      1. Absolutely right what you say … regarding the recession kids as well as regarding short-term analysis. Anyway fundamental analysis really is never short-term. What I meant with short-term in this context was rather from one quarter to another, from one rate decision to another … Could save us from relying to much on what central bankers said last time, couldn’t it?
        I for one notice that thinking too long-term and having in mind their famous quotations, risk not being neutral enough anymore.
        BTW I missed your lessons and very much appreciate this exchange of thoughts and your insights.

        1. Will spend more time on lessons and chat again soon now that Etoro has nearly cleared up and HF has been set up. Really the only other way could be to use lower leverage, but then we also decimate any gains.
          Long term wise, options will also be good as we can simple pick the direction and tome frame (e.g. One month).

          1. Wow, I am so happy to be here, I am really learning a lot by reading your thoughts and discussions. Thank you Mohammed so much for everything. you’re making difference. I am really speechless right now, so let me say have a great weekend.

  4. Hi Mo! Great read again. You’re showing a bright horizon again.
    The activities on eToro show, that you even can guide us through stormy weather. Keep going!

    Have a safe trip home!

    Thomas

  5. Great read as usual. I am confident to regain my losses. I will deposit on HF as soon my account gets validated. Hope you keep on trading on etoro as well. Those “free” etoro credits are usefull for my recovery :).

    Sticking with the original plan 2-year plan on etoro and 2-year plan on HF.

    (By the way login problem on etoro app, workaround is just use safaribrowses and login there)

    KR,
    Ken

  6. Thanks Mo for a great update and reassuring replies to the inputs here. Looking forward to the journey forward. eToro got stopped out, but I’m all in on HF.

    Have a great weekend,

    Rune

  7. Thank you Mo,
    I really appreciate your openness and honesty, as well as the huge effort you put into this with your time and effort.

    I’m learning a great deal from you and love your style.

    Sincerely,

    Andy

  8. Thanks for up date and you are very very VERY honest guy i ever meet and i started to copy you on end of november and even add 35% on december and i remember you said dont deposit if you cant afford to lose. but well i guess it was just the wrong time to start copy U and i hit SL on 20.1.2016 and guess what im still belive in U and im filling my piggybank to start on pamm one day in future if you let me in and thanks for evrything MOHAMED and i really respect your time beeing with us on this lovely forum and thanks for update and evrything you did for us thank you and have nice weekend and nice fly to home.

  9. Hello Mo!

    Young danish Etoro pupil here, can pretty much agree that you knew what you were doing. Read your updates daily and really appriciate the knowledge you provide. Before I started following you I had no idea how much impact specific things around the world has on the market. This is a journey of learning and I’ll be following it as long as you provide it!

  10. I just wrote a big post and then lost it, Ill try and keep it short this time I dont post much but I look forward to reading your thoughts and analysis daily. I would just like to say what an absolute privilege it is to have stumbled across you (I was one of the original 90 copying ) I would like to thank you for your daily thoughts and analysis on here and twitter.
    Unfortunately I had to cut the gbpchf position but it’s good to see the gbp jpy position recovering nicely.
    I for one like the idea of cutting the community short as the backstabbers and bottom feeders really piss me off ( it also makes it feel like an exclusive club, for which I feel proud to be a member off,)
    I would also like to thank you for giving us hope, I live in a beautiful but depressed area with not many jobs around and I love the thought that within a few years I could be in a much better place financialy.
    I guess what I’m trying to say is “Thanks for everything Mo, it’s really really appreciated”

  11. Opps it did send.

    Nevertheless, once again I say thank you, i started copying and learning in the End of November. By choice of no more funds i stopped copying but still was learning a lot. Now I want to start copy again soon, when funds are available again.

    Thank you Mohammed, again, as I wrote many times before here and in Etoro.

    Thank you for all your efforts, there are still a lot of us who know what you do and appreciate it.

    Thank you, for you are the Captain of this ship and brought us through stormy weathers, we got stronger through this.

  12. Thanks for the update.

    Started to copy you beginning of november and despite of adjusting the copy amount hit SL sometime in january.

    Also invested on HF and planning to double up my investment there as soon as I manage to rebuild my equity on ET with some USDJPY trades πŸ™‚

    Thanks for all you insights here and the very informative tweets!

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