Is there a point in even posting anything today? It has been an exact repeat of yesterday. Asian equities crashing (although they did open 1.6% up today) and commodities doing the same. The Pound continues to fall despite better than expected employment results (unemployment at a 10 year low) and inflation results this week. It has been rallying earlier until Carney’s epic contradiction. Moral of the story is, never paying attention to his comments again. My biggest mistake ever was not realizing that this man will contradict himself every other week if it means he grabs the headlines. So glad I only touched the sterling once on HF and set a strict SL.
Am not willing to extend the SL on the GBPCHF past 1.40. We have the available funds to, but if the Sterling does not turn at these levels, then I see it heading towards 1.35 and I am not going to keep throwing money at this one. If it SL’s, so be it. Will move on and look to recoup the loss from elsewhere. If it turns before that (and I didn’t expect it to go below 1.44!) , then I will consider that a bonus. Chances are if this keeps it, we could lose this position today or tomorrow. Personally I am risking it. As sad as its sounds whats another 150 pips to add to an already 800 pip loss.
Two USDJPY buys today got SL’d in green positions today, so some profit but less than I hoped for. Recovery is going well. Balance has increased by 15% this week and equity has recovered from being 18% drawdown to 6% drawdown, so I am happy about that.
Otherwise really, the key watch word is Oil here and not just how far these prices can drop but how long they can stay that low for. Despite all the “extreme claims” out there, if you look at what the institutions forecast in Bloomberg, the median expectation is for Oil to finish the year above $50 a barrel (I posted some pics from my terminal on my twitter, if anyone is interested). The reasoning they give is that many “high cost producers” have already slashed prices as much as they can and have exhausted credit limits and at the current prices, they can NOT continue to soldier on without additional finance, finance which they can not secure. They therefore forecast a drop in production in Q1 2016. Let us hope that they are right, or our Sterling trades are effectively going nowhere,