Update: 21 January 2016

Is there a point in even posting anything today? It has been an exact repeat of yesterday. Asian equities crashing (although they did open 1.6% up today) and commodities doing the same. The Pound continues to fall despite better than expected employment results (unemployment at a 10 year low) and inflation results this week. It has been rallying earlier until Carney’s epic contradiction. Moral of the story is, never paying attention to his comments again. My biggest mistake ever was not realizing that this man will contradict himself every other week if it means he grabs the headlines. So glad I only touched the sterling once on HF and set a strict SL.


Am not willing to extend the SL on the GBPCHF past 1.40. We have the available funds to, but if the Sterling does not turn at these levels, then I see it heading towards 1.35 and I am not going to keep throwing money at this one. If it SL’s, so be it. Will move on and look to recoup the loss from elsewhere. If it turns before that (and I didn’t expect it to go below 1.44!) , then I will consider that a bonus. Chances are if this keeps it, we could lose this position today or tomorrow. Personally I am risking it. As sad as its sounds whats another 150 pips to add to an already 800 pip loss.


Two USDJPY buys today got SL’d in green positions today, so some profit but less than I hoped for. Recovery is going well. Balance has increased by 15% this week and equity has recovered from being 18% drawdown to 6% drawdown, so I am happy about that.

Otherwise really, the key watch word is Oil here and not just how far these prices can drop but how long they can stay that low for. Despite all the “extreme claims” out there, if you look at what the institutions forecast in Bloomberg, the median expectation is for Oil to finish the year above $50 a barrel (I posted some pics from my terminal on my twitter, if anyone is interested). The reasoning they give is that many “high cost producers” have already slashed prices as much as they can and have exhausted credit limits and at the current prices, they can NOT continue to soldier on without additional finance, finance which they can not secure. They therefore forecast a drop in production in Q1 2016. Let us hope that they are right, or our Sterling trades are effectively going nowhere,



  1. Good evening Mohammed, is HF still open to copy your trades from February? I like the way you stand for in what you believe. I call it emotionally, intelligent leadership. In regards to your trades, I agree with the point that your trades were positioned not in the right time but your overall score is amazing. Keep up the work you are doing. Warm regards, Peter

    1. Hi Peter,
      What I will do is lock it and then give people the password when they ask for it. That way will be able to control who joins etc. Hopefully, we can recover the current 6% unrealized losses and them move on to building profits. Its been a brutal month.

  2. Thank you for your another great info Mo. Enjoy upcoming weekend… I see some possibility to turn GBPJPY and GBPCHF trades around this numbers as it is now…I hope everything will turn as you planning 🙂


    1. We need Kuroda to quit being delluded about his inflation targets and do something on the 29th of Jan (next weeks BOJ meeting). If he behaves as he should (I believe fundamentally he has to), then we will all look back on this and laugh. Of course in between now and then, constant oil crashes and equity collapses could make us look back on this and cry…

      1. Thank you for another interesting update! Your daily contribution has become part of my afternoon break 😛

        Jan 29: that’s what I am hoping on as well…
        One thing is for sure, if markets plummet after Jan 29, I am out. I picked a turbulent period to start my Forex adventure 😛

        I will also decide on Jan 29 to join HF! Don’t have the guts to be a bottom fisher.

  3. Hi Mo!
    Im wainting as well on Your daily update. It’s almost like the commercial news for me…
    Im extremely pleased about your new idea about the locked HF account with a password. So I could join, as soon as there is some liquid fonds… – of course if you would accept my entering…


    1. I hope he´ll stick with Etoro… Maybe there´s not the best community of people…Mostly unexperienced traders but as long as he won´t bother with them or even block all that crap with upcoming update to Etoro, It´ll be all right…Im not sure but he mentioned he´ll stay there in one of his older post here on webpage…

      1. I think dealing with the community adds additional stress, which might affect trading, so he should just do what he thinks is best in order to protect himself and not get dragged down by the negativity.

  4. I think this works really well , communication to those of us that want it , and nothing on Etoro for the mob to tear apart , I would welcome Mo to continue to trade on Etoro so we can recoup losses ( which we all know the man can do within 4 – 6 months) plus allow people to continue to learn !

  5. Thank you for the update. I’m counting on GBP turning too, the losses it’s had just don’t make sense to me especially given how little EUR has moved.

  6. Cheers Mo. Ridiculous news stories headlining here at the moment, fanning the flames as well no doubt. Your take on it all is always welcome reading.

  7. Sorry I know this is unrelated but I am a current “copyer” on Etoro and was looking to gain access to the forums. When I click on “register” it says that they are closed. Is there another way to do it ?


  8. Your etoro trades have really been picking up today! I’m only down 10 % there now. Sadly don’t think I’ll be joining you on HF — going to keep to one platform. Will be with you on Etoro until you shut it down though, and glad I’ll still be able to catch your insights on this blog.

    Have a great day 🙂

  9. Saludos Mohammed, lamentablemente me quede fuera hace unos dias involuntariamente en la cuenta de etoro. A pesar de ello, quiero que sepa que sigo con atención sus actualizaciones y en breve espero poderme unir de nuevo a la comunidad a traves de las dos plataformas. O al menos en HF si tuviera que elegir.
    Atentamente, RENAISSANCE.

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