Update: 26th February 2016

Oil is climbing today as the market gains some optimism after rumours of an OPEC meeting in March hoping to put a cap on production. In my opinion, such optimism may be misplaced as any curb in production will just be taken advantage of by the other producers trying to take market share. At the end of the day, even if we cap production at current levels, there is still an excess of 4 million barrels a day. The solution has to be to stop the over supply, not to keep it at constant levels. And for that, you need everyone to agree. A prospect that is very unlikely.

Japanese CPI was soft today, but did not show contraction as I expected. Regardless, being virtually flat, it is still far from the BOJ’s target levels and we expect stimulus from the BOJ in March.

US data remains on tap, including Q4 GDP revisions (expected downwards revision), PCE, Personal Income and Spending. This data will determine the manner in which the market closes today, so we should watch it with a close eye. It will give a good indication on whether perofrmance can match the FED’s intention to raise rates this year.

Thus far the market remains risk on, unfortunately, we have not been able to capitalise on it as bad luck for a third day in a row seems to be ensuring that spreads widen and change near our Sls and Tps to make sure their either get hit or they don’t trigger. With this happening over 40 times now in 3 days, during periods of no data releases and the widening happening to the perfect point to the exact pip, I am left wondering if all of us have been breaking mirrors for all of this week. We have literally lost over $200,000 in unrealised profits this week due to this bad luck.


  1. Hey Mo,
    I’m having a bad feeling about HF…how can this be so accurately against us so many many times.
    If you weren’t the trader you are, I fear we’d be finished right now. It’s like Kasparov versus a computer!!! Something very fishy going on.

  2. Ask them to give an offer for fixed spreads. I have just gotten my account cleared but i am not investing if it goes like this.. Or else its just to find another broker..

  3. Mo, I used to greatly admire your ability to step back and re-evaluate when times get tough.

    There is no doubt that you’re an amazing trader, there is no doubt in your abilities or in the fact that you’ve been through a lot the past few months.
    With this in mind, I believe that you have been thrown off your game, with every passing day it feels like you’re slipping away a little more. Not just trading wise, but mentally as well.

    I really feel like you need to take some time, a week perhaps, of disconnecting yourself from the community and getting your mind straight.

    I’m not sure whether you’ve got a family to come home to but maybe it’s an idea to close all trades as soon as you can and take a week. Spend some times with friends, possibly take your wife our for dinner, have a good time and relax. Take a break from the forums, the blog, twitter and what have you. Whatever you need to do to get back to your place of content you should do.

    What happened happened, and though it is – and was – painful, there is no changing it now. So don’t try to lift beyond your might in an attempt to fix what has occurred. Also know, that you don’t owe any of us anything. You are doing your very best and that’s all we can ask.

    If you decide to take some time, realize that the community will be supportive of that. Because more than an investment, you are a human who we respect and love.

    1. I totally agree with Mitchell. Have a break. Relax and reload your batteries. We haven’t lost anything. Take the first month on HF as a test run.

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