Happy Saturday everyone. Hope you are all enjoying your weekend. I particularly want to wish a happy weekend to Juleayr and Scotland who have most likely been busy with the new additions to their family. Anyway a few things to cover today, so I will get to it.
Well I had been warning for weeks that we are not in a recession and that saying the FED will not take any action in 2016 (only 6 weeks in 2016) is very foolish. The fact is that people love to read things on the internet, despite the source, and then jump on the bandwagon and say look….. Do not be surprised when these same sources reverse their calls very shortly, as they did last year every time they got it wrong and act as if they are experts once again. An analyst should have consistency and changing your long term fundamental views on a daily basis does not make one an analyst, it makes one a sheep or crowd follower. Here is the key point all of these “recession kids” missed, equities in the US fell because oil prices fell, they followed them. They did not fall due to a weak US economy, it is not weak. But they lack the experience or knowledge to realise this, so they think a fall in equities means a recession. They got lucky on 5 trades and think that made them experts with more knowledge than all the great trade houses or central banks and that is why all of them have already wiped out the lucky profits they had at the start of the year and will soon be blaming “the big boys” when they are left penniless, just like on their other blown accounts.
Now the data last week confirmed all of our fundamental beliefs it showed:
1.) Growth in the Eurozone has slowed and the ECB will have to add more stimulus.
2.) Japan is in a recession and the BOJ will need to do more.
3.) The US economy continues to grow and outperform expectations with a tightening labour market and inflation returning to desirable levels. It is not in trouble or in a recession. Countries in a recession do not grow 2.5% in a year and do not have unemployment rates of 4.9% and do not have increasing wages, consumption and spending. Please everyone, recognise this fact. If you believe the US is in a recession, you will fall into the same trap that wiped so many people out last year when they bet everything against the USD.
In short I reinforce my view that 2016 will bring with it the following: Multiple hikes from the FED, Stimulus from the ECB and Stimulus from the BOJ.
When? I believe the ECB and BOJ will act in March. With the FED, I am not so certain. Given another solid Employment report in early March, there is a decent chance they will tighten again then, but otherwise I expect June to be more likely. The fact of the matter is with inflation now approaching their targets . Remember core inflation is now 1.7%, this is ABOVE the Feds forecast of 1.6% at this point in time but still below its target of 2%. They were anticipating 4 hikes on the basis of that 1.6% forecast and these increases in income, spending and consumption are possibly the best signals on why the FED has to act in 2016. It can not keep rates at the present level.
Our trading on HF:
Well we had a terrible week on HF. I mean do not get me wrong, our results were acceptable. Despite the market going 4000 pips against us on 300X leverage, we managed to use money management and hedging to survive the hit, and reduce our 60% draw down to a net profit (although a small one). That in itself is a great victory and is the second time, we have managed to recover from large draw downs in a short time which I believe builds confidence in the account. The reason why I say a terrible week is because of the extraordinary bad luck that we all saw the last few days, when we made all the right trades and calls and yet all of them miraculously SL’d by widening spreads to the very pip with laser precision (and these are the 40 I saw, only Allah knows what happened that I did not watch or see). I sat down and crunched the numbers this morning. I was not pleased when I saw the following:
1.) Had none of these 40 incidents happened, we would have made $240,000 USD.
2.) Had only the first 10 happened, we would have made $190,000 USD.
3.) Had only the first 20 happened, we would have made $120,000 USD.”
Although these are not losses on our investment, they are loses on my time and thoughts and lost opportunities. I have never seen such bad luck in a span of a few days and many of you who read my rants on twitter every time it happened understand where I am coming from.
The only positive I guess we can take is that we have proven twice now that if need be, we can turn around a losing account in a very short period of time and this is at least good for everyone’s confidence and it shows that as long as we stay in this together and cover each other with our advice and updates we can survive anything (if we survived a 3000 pip movement against us with 300X leverage and turned it around, we can survive anything!). Something another group prevented us from doing by manual sabotage of my account.
Now that is something else I want to address. I want to know why, if any of you still do, do people keep balances with that group. Let us look at the facts, unlike some, my story does not change:
1.) First these people claim that I my account has not been blocked and I am lying. Fair enough, they can claim that if they want. I mean we were in a worse situation on HF at the same time, with less free capital and more leverage and more reds, yet did we claim we couldn’t log in? Nope, we logged in and turned it around.
2.) Then they slipped up and told a few people that they had stopped me from the trader and making new trades ”to protect users”. Well firstly, why the change in the story and secondly why take this action in any case? How does preventing me from changing trades and hedging protect users? If HF did that, we would have been cleaned there two faster than on Etoro. This is proven by the events that happened. One we could work with, the other we could not log into. Also when did they ever take other actions like this on other people. Did they do this to the Forex Posse or anyother traders? Was this a special occasion?
3.) They claim I am unreachable. Well we all know how much nonsense that is. All of you can reach me in 5 minutes but an entire support team can not? Why not tell the truth? You ignored my calls and only after people called you on you poor behaviour did u leave me a message on twitter saying please login and submit a ticket. How do I login and do that, when you banned me from logging in?
4.) Then they claimed to one person, a UK copier who asked me not to mention his name, that I wrote on my site that other people have been trading on my account. This is slander. Find me one place on twitter or this blog where I have accused people of hacking my account and I will close down this site 5 minutes later.
5.) Then they tell you they are closing trades for your safety and then when you all complain, they change their reason and say its for a margin call… I am sure there are many other falsehoods told which I have not heard.
So the question is why do you still keep money with these people? They lied to us, changed their story again to lie more but even if you do not believe that, there is the following key point. THEY ADMITTED BLOCKING MY ACCOUNT FROM THE TRADER AND OPENING NEW TRADES. That fact alone should be enough for anyone to realise on principle that they did interfere and sabotage us. Period. Therefore after they effectively strangled us, why should any of you even trust them with a penny.
Anyway Karma is a wonderful thing and I am glad to see that three weeks later, serious people are abandoning this site in droves and its mostly left with spammers, scammers and sit on balance traders. Its all over for them and they know it. However, I do want to make one further appeal to all of you that still have balances with these people to withdraw them. They cheated us once, lied about it, got caught, lied some more and have proven that they will throw you in front of a bus for their own interests. Do not give them a free pass on this one. If you have deposits with them. Withdraw them. Let these people know there is a consequence of cheating customers and they are not bigger or more important than their customers no matter how deluded they are on the matter. It is the right thing to do.
What happens next?
As usual tomorrow we will put up some trade ideas for HF, CFD’s, IQ Option and cover the outlook for the week ahead (I’m glad it worked for many of you this week). With IQ Option it appears that Juleayr has perfected a technique of using the trade ideas. She is very busy at the moment as a new mother but perhaps when she has time, she can share the method as her way of doing it seems to work better than most and it is a good way to earn extra spending money on the side.
Anyway have a great weekend everyone. Next week we come out hungry and looking for profit. Bad luck can not continue to deprive us!
P.s. If you have been trying the Options and CFD trade ideas these last 2 weeks, I would love to hear some feedback in the comments below (whether it worked or not). It will be of great help to me with my suggestions and to others as well.
P.s.s Special thanks to Mitchell to gave me some advice the other day that I needed to hear. Really appreciate it <3