Update: 3rd February 2016

I will have to keep this short because I have other commitments. As usual if you leave me a message on twitter, ill do my best to get back to you.

Ok on to business. Main themes of the day:

NZD strength following unemployment falling to a 7 year low of 5.3%  from 6% instead of an expected increase to 6.1%. Many of you may be wondering why analysts are so often wrong here with their forecasts. The reason is very simple. New Zealand is so small that a few thousand new jobs make a massive difference.

JPY strength on risk aversion.

US data was decent but markets did not react.


Trade closed yesterday was USDJPY. It stopped out. We had actually set the SL into green, but due to volatility our SL was missed and it struck one pip in the red. Not a big deal.

New trade opened today USDJPY long at 119.46. Currently red despite positive US data and comments from FOMC voting member George who said she sees no reason why market volatility should affect the speed of US rate hikes (a very bullish comment).


We went short cable at 1.44, but stopped it at around 1.4450 because the uncertainty made me uncomfortable. Glad I did since it now is 1.4540+. As we have been saying growth in the UK is really outperforming, but I did not expect the sterling to be bid after the BOE mind games with the market. Guess I was wrong.

We went long Eurcad. 3 trades. The reason for this is we believed oil would suffer today and european equities would do poorly. This should have been negative for the cad and good for EUR. Two of our trades got stopped in the green (as a result of me setting SL’s too tight – I know i should be more elastic but until things calm down I see a greater priority to be safe). The other remains open and is red. I have set a strict SL of 1.50 and am expecting US oil inventories later to give this a rise. If not, perhaps the trade may get stopped.

Got to go now. Until tomorrow,



  1. Thanks for the update!

    Massive safe haven flow. Hopefully a reversal is going to happen now as the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change is better than expected

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