Updates

Update: Japanese data Friday 27th November 2015

Good morning. I just wanted to drop a few observations about the Japanese data that was released this morning. People have been asking me about it since there has not been a pronounced market reaction. I felt it would be best to address it here rather than cover it in many different messages. So keeping it as short and simple as possible:

1.) House hold spending posted a significant decline (disappointing for expectations for a modest gain.)

2.) Inflation was flat.

3.) Unemployment decreased (the only positive).

4.) The US is on holiday.

This in combination with the two facts will put pressure on the BOJ to do more.

1.) The economy is in a recession with a contracting GDP (in contrast to the rest of the world.)

2.) The BOJ admitted in minutes released on Tuesday that they are concerned inflation is failing to meet their targets.

The JPY has benefited this week from political turmoil that has resulted in a bid tone for the yen and a relatively quiet end of the week due to the US holidays. This is the limitation of the positives in its favour and effectively, the currency remains fundamentally week. It is highly likely to give up its gains (as modest as they are) of the last few days at the first opportunity. I remain bullish on the USDJPY at this point and see no reason to change my views.

 

5 Comments

  1. Good Morning Mohammed!
    Thank you for the clear and educating update.
    Makes me happy to see the logic in your plan.
    A thing less clear is the shitty weather in Uppsala
    /sweden. Stormy, humid, Cold and dark..
    Like Mordor…
    Where is the sun!!? ?

  2. Thanks for the updates Mo. I find myself logging in to check your updates for market data rather than the news every morning. Your succinct and lucid explanation of the news is something I’ve started to look forward to every day. Thank you and keep up the good job.

  3. Thanks for the update Mo. I’ve seen the data and was wondering how to interpret the declined unemployment compared to the big picture of the japanese economy. Thanks for clarifying. Have a great day! Tania

  4. Good morning Mo.
    I also look forward everyday at your updates and analysis of the markets and your strategy. I’m new at the forex and eToro and eager to learn. (I try to follow all your electronic channels) I find it amazing someone with your knowledge cares for people like us to teach us to help us understand and learn to become independent traders ourself one day. Thank you and have a great day and weekend! Wendy

  5. Very clear as always, thanks mate. And the aussie’s going our way too. I think I might put that old boat up for sale, doesn’t look like we’re going to be needing it after all…

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