Morning everyone, sorry am late for the party but not feeling all that fresh today for some reason. I think i need a day off.
Anyway to summarize what happened yesterday:
BOC held in line with our expectations. Giving the CAD that spike in strength I warned you all about.
Yellen made a case towards waiting to long to raise rates – this is good for us.
This morning the Kiwi is a little firmer, which has gone against supporting our NZDUSD sell. In fact we have been dragged from green to red overnight. However, it is not a change that worries me at this time since the trade is still fundamentally strong and we are still waiting for firm US data to send this on the right way.
As I write this, the account is now 5% up overall this week, even with this one red trades, which is very good considering we are only mid-way through the week.(Note monthly stats look different as this week Monday was still November).
I expect action from the ECB. I am 95% confident about since, since I see it that with inflation flat, they have to act, there is no alternative and further delays just cancel out all their efforts so far. They have realized this. Action from them will make the EURUSD dive (sorry bulls) and as a result will cause USD to do better against other pairs, due to the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and FED causing the EURUSD to move the most.
You have some self professed experts in a gang saying the rate hike is already 100% priced in. I’m sorry to tell all of you that they have lead down the path of ruin that they are wrong. I am not sure whether it is delusions that make them say so, or whether it is intentional deception to convince their panicking copiers. Fact remains the same, the USD can still gain a lot more ground this month. If you think a rate hike is 100% priced in already then you are mistaken.
In addition, firm strong productivity growth suggests that Friday’s NFP is very likely to at least meet forecasts. I am sorry if you are on the wrong side of this trade, but in all likelihood if you bet everything against the dollar this week, it is likely you will be a lot poorer by the weekend. I am not saying this to mock you, I have been saying this and warning you all for the last few weeks not to put all your eggs in one basket and I hope that some of you have been listening.
On a first side note: I am considering taking a one month position against the CHF with about 20% of the portfolio and lower leverage, currently weighing the pros and cons of such an idea.
On a second side note: I am happy that all of our trade ideas on the forum would now be in profit this week with 700 pips already. We usually have a high success rate, but its nice to see 100% every now and then.
As always, good luck to everyone with open trades.