Updates

Morning: 3rd December 2015

Morning everyone, sorry am late for the party but not feeling all that fresh today for some reason. I think i need a day off.

Anyway to summarize what happened yesterday:

BOC held in line with our expectations. Giving the CAD that spike in strength I warned you all about.
Yellen made a case towards waiting to long to raise rates – this is good for us.

The account:

This morning the Kiwi is a little firmer, which has gone against supporting our NZDUSD sell. In fact we have been dragged from green to red overnight. However, it is not a change that worries me at this time since the trade is still fundamentally strong and we are still waiting for firm US data to send this on the right way.

As I write this, the account is now 5% up overall this week, even with this one red trades, which is very good considering we are only mid-way through the week.(Note monthly stats look different as this week Monday was still November).

Later today:

I expect action from the ECB. I am 95% confident about since, since I see it that with inflation flat, they have to act, there is no alternative and further delays just cancel out all their efforts so far. They have realized this. Action from them will make the EURUSD dive (sorry bulls) and as a result will cause USD to do better against other pairs, due to the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and FED causing the EURUSD to move the most.

You have some self professed experts in a gang saying the rate hike is already 100% priced in. I’m sorry to tell all of you that they have lead down the path of ruin that they are wrong. I am not sure whether it is delusions that make them say so, or whether it is intentional deception to convince their panicking copiers. Fact remains the same, the USD can still gain a lot more ground this month. If you think a rate hike is 100% priced in already then you are mistaken.

In addition, firm strong productivity growth suggests that Friday’s NFP is very likely to at least meet forecasts. I am sorry if you are on the wrong side of this trade, but in all likelihood if you bet everything against the dollar this week, it is likely you will be a lot poorer by the weekend. I am not saying this to mock you, I have been saying this and warning you all for the last few weeks not to put all your eggs in one basket and I hope that some of you have been listening.

On a first side note: I am considering taking a one month position against the CHF with about 20% of the portfolio and lower leverage, currently weighing the pros and cons of such an idea.
On a second side note: I am happy that all of our trade ideas on the forum would now be in profit this week with 700 pips already. We usually have a high success rate, but its nice to see 100% every now and then.

As always, good luck to everyone with open trades.

19 Comments

  1. Hi Bro,

    Always looking forward for your fruitful thoughts 🙂
    All the best and Thanks for sharing this wealth of information.
    regards,
    Bassam

  2. I just posted a question on what would happen in case of unexpected expectations by Draghi .. I have now found the answer in your post .. p.s. makes me very strange that many experienced traders have half of their open account against current buy .. with positions to 1.58 on the cable .. and even worse on the euro in 1145 .. thanks to your advice I closed my time positions buy to 1.12

    1. Because they are not experienced. They claim to be, which is not the same thing as being. In all fairness an experienced trader would not spend months drawn down praying for a change in the economic conditions.

      1. but I do not know if they understood to have responsibility for many hundreds of miles of euro of other people .. a bit ‘ of prudence in more .. even to open sales positions covering .. nothing

  3. Hey Mo!
    Always love the updates, its a great educational source, sorry to hear about the headache, I understand if you want to take a bit of time off to relax, much deserved in my opinion.

    I was just wondering if the educational course you were running is still up? I might have missed the train on this one it is just I have been busy studying for my actual exams 🙂

    Anyway, thanks in advance!
    Jack

  4. Hi Mo,

    i hope you are well.
    I have a question that is a bit off topic and i am really hoping that you can answer this for me.

    what you are doing for so many people on Etoro is really amazing and we thank you for that.

    My question however was, do you intend on ever leaving Etoro anytime soon? because that will mean for so many of us that we will have to look for other people like you and frankly there are not many people like you on Etoro.

    i hope to hear from you.

    1. No. Not planning on leaving. Have a two year targets that I wish to meet:

      1.) Teach at least 40 other people to trade. All for free.
      2.) Compound my copiers money to a massive gain.
      3.) Make lots of friends all around the world.

  5. nobody is this clean he taking everyone for a ride making so much himself managing all your money he scam i copy him on etoro since November and i lose 100%

    1. You know I eventually decided to approve this comment because it has no swear words.

      1.) Grammar is your friend.
      2.) Yes you are right, all of their money is really sitting in my bank account at the moment.
      3.) You do realize these guys have been copying from September and know you are lying.
      4.) Nice Slovenian IP and nice try to sound like Andy, but its clear who you are.
      5.) Even if you gained an 100 extra pips for every time you missed a full stop in that sentence, you still would be 12000 pips in the red for your copiers.
      6.) Should you be worried about what your crew is going to do in 1 hour 45 mins when Draghi puts you all on ice?

  6. Haha did this guy just try to impersonate Andy from eToro? i smiled 🙂 to funny.
    Anyway thanks again Mo for your indepth thoughts

  7. Just wondering Mo, you are saying that you are 95% sure. Why don’t you put a EUR/USD sell then? Please can you explain?

    I did manage to do 2 profitable trades last 2 days. Lost alot of money on copying another trader, but hey, i took the hit and i am free now :).

    On a side note, Hope to learn from your lessons, and become a good trader myself.

    Kind Regards

    1. Integrity. I promised myself not to trade this pair for one month after what happened in Paris. That is why I made only 77% last month (not trying to brag but would have made a lot more if I started shorting Euro then).

Leave a Reply