Updates

Update: 10 December 2015

Well unfortunately, very little positive to report. It has been a terrible day. For a start after the RBNZ cut rates in line with our expectations, the NZDUSD fell as suspected, missed our TP by 9 pips and then jumped 190 pips in the other direction, so that was a disaster in all honesty.

As the day progressed, it looked like we were recovering, especially after the Dovish comments from the SNB about being ready to intervene to devalue the “overvalued franc”. Our GBPCHF buy reached 1.5041, recovering from its 1.4820 lows and our USDJPY buy was in the green. This recovery was very short lived and another flash commodity crash caused haven bids for the JPY and CHF which essentially reversed all recovery and plunged these trades deep into the red. Of greater concern is that these falling commodity prices are now problematic and may cause the FED to delay liftoff on Thursday, in effect changing our fundamental outlook completely. While it is still likely that the FED will lift off, every day that commodities crash more, it increases the likelihood of a delay.

As this point, I usually say we have to be patient, but it literally seems that everything has gone wrong this month. Be it Russia and Turkey having “issues” to put it politely, Draghi delivering less than anticipated, Chinese growth concerns and a massive fall in commodity prices. At this point, I have to say that I feel it is almost certain that we will miss our 20% target this month and while we will continue to try our best, we may even finish the year on a red month. What really upsets me is that for the last two weeks, rather than delivering results, I just give explanations, which is not very productive. We want wealth generation, not excuses.

The only positive I can think of is that it is highly likely that market sentiment turns to USD bid before the end of the week or early next week Pre-FOMC meeting to give us some relief from our red positions and that the account remains safe. However unfortunately, there are no other positives to report at this point. Sorry that I am unable to give you all better news.

Lets try to stay positive and just see how we can best emerge from this,

Mohammed

14 Comments

  1. Hello Mo,

    Im ok with your explanation, can win all the time ๐Ÿ™‚
    I havent gained too much from you yet since I started lat, but I still have strong belief in you and will join you also in the future ๐Ÿ™‚

    I have never seen a more honest, humble and bighearted trader!

  2. Thanks for the update Mo , we will keep battling away and come out on top , maybe not this month be we are in this for the long term !!

    Thanks Rich

  3. Just read your post, Mo, No need to be sorry or feel down, You are by FAR the best trader I have ever seen and you have taught me so much already !

    Your honest, humble and and an all round awesome person!

    I think there is another positive that you touched on but to me, it is a massive positive and something that almost feels as good as winning. The account is in a very safe position. After all the sh*t thats happened this month and how everything seems to have gone against us, we are only at a deficit of -4.84 percent at the time of writing this, sure that could rise but not to an unrecoverable deficit. Other traders have bad months and are down by 40 percent; This is a sign of the stable long term nature of your trading methods and I am SO glad that this is how a bad month goes; Thats very inspirational and as long as we are alive and the deficit is recoverable, then I’m happy with that.

    As you said before, we cannot be right 100% of the time and when we are wrong, we have to have careful risk management to be able to recover after a bad spell.

    Thanks Mo for everything and continue to be the best trader, I am fully behind you like so many others and it must feel good having people behind you through bad times right? ๐Ÿ™‚

    P.s We miss you on the chat ๐Ÿ™‚

  4. Don’t underestimate the value of your explanations – they’re as useful as the results in my opinion and many of us are having a lot of fun chatting and sharing experiences.
    Seaheavan is pushing the envelope with options and the whole journey is a hoot ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Agreed, wholeheartedly. For someone like me who is trying to get an understanding of how to play this game consistently in the green, this blog is invaluable. Stay positive and thanks for your efforts, Mo.

  5. Hi Mohammed,
    I’m still way in profit (18%) as of now in less in two months so I must say that I have not lost my capital as you had built a cushion of profit which was first on the negative (came from pro traders who screwed me over 4 months!!).
    I would like to Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
    Looking forward to meet you in Dubai at the end of the year if you will not be busy ๐Ÿ™‚
    Shukran!!
    Bassam

  6. Hello MO, Thank you for showing a great concern to your followers. I haven’t written much, but have followed your posts everyday. Thank you and yes I fully support you. -4/5% is very much a recoverable position.

    A small question for you – at what point would you consider cutting your losses? or would you like to see it through until early next week as per your note?

    Thank you and happy trading.

    1. You cut your loses when a deal no longer makes sense and you see there is no value in it. I.e. Outlook changes. Of course if an account is all in and has no spare capital, you may also cut your losses if you see a better opportunity. However, since we never really go “All in”, that does not really apply to us.

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