Updates

Update: 14th December 2014 – It continues to go horribly wrong

So all seemed to be going well when I last checked the account on my lunch break, losses were getting smaller and we were on target to meet our objective of getting out with minimized losses. A few hours later and there is a completely different story. Oil tanks causing bids for JPY and CHF and taking our positions deep into the red. Thank god, i got back in time to cancel our GBPJPY buy.

But this puzzles me. You see even though OPEC did not cut production and the markets continued to be over supplied, the over supply is no greater than it was a month ago. It is not as if tomorrow there will be an addition 5 million barrels per day on the market. All producers are more or less at their maximum. In addition, with respect to Iran, it is true that they will be exporting soon, but they need months and billions invested to get the capability to export the amounts they are talking about. It will not happen over night…

So why the massive fall in oil prices? I think it is a combination of the following:

1.) Liquidity being tight this time of year, so even small volumes make a massive difference.

2.) Markets panicking.

3.) People being over bearish (remember the EURO in April?)

In all honesty if we look at this physical markets, supply is the same as it was one month ago. It is NOT greater. Demand is greater than thought (China and Japan have had greater growth than expected). I personally do not think that the price can fall much further and I think it will not be many days until we are back at 40 again. Just my thoughts. If I am wrong, then we have a massive loss to end the year on. Not exactly how I wanted to finish, but it is what it is. Sometimes, we just make mistakes and when we make them, we have to admit that we made them and learn from them.

 

 

11 Comments

  1. Hi Mo,

    Thank you for the update. If it continues to go down, would it be worth cutting the losses? Market is too unstable / unpredictable right now to HOPE for the best. Once it stabilises, we can get back in the market. What do you think? You know best, so keen to hear what you think on this? Thank you and happy trading.

  2. Just logged in and got surprised… thanks for the update, answered many questions I had. Thanks for your work Mo, sorry for your incredible streak (how many ? 29?30?) of positive trades that I understood it could end soon. Still hope it doesn’t 😉 thanks for your effort Mo, have a nice day.

  3. Hey Mo,

    It would indeed be sad to end the year on a negative note. However, it is what it is.

    I agree with your thoughts, I think the over selling of oil could turn around before the year ends. It has already gained a bit today to get back over 36. I was tempted to buy under 36, but it is too unstable at the moment.

    All we can do now is to ride the storm and come out stronger. We won’t sink, so we can swim another day.

    Rakesh

  4. Mo thanks for all. I wish the greens but for now we need be patient and don´t be precipitate. As like you said, the trades still open. ( I wish everthing could be changed)n. You know what should be done, we trust you.

    Marcos

  5. We have to see some bounce back from here, surely! Just a quick comment – if you extend SLs could you plse also flag that to us? I tinkered with my acct balance at one point so would like to double check all is as it should be. Cheers matey. Trust you are all over this so with you all the way. Helmets on guys, in we go..

  6. Hey Mo, thanks for the update as always. It’s one thing to stay in touch when things are smooth sailing, but takes a big man to stay as open as you are when times get tough. Today may not be the day when the famous ‘Chill Winston’ phrase can be busted out, so I’d go with another classic:
    ‘Shit Happens’

    By the way, I started trading on anyoption, do you have any udpate from them on when your account will be ready to copy? Or are you holding off for now, fine by me either way, just don’t want to miss out 🙂

    Even if these trades all go bust, i’m still up solid in the green with your copy overall, so you won’t hear me whining about a temporary setback if these trades do stay sour. Have a good evening!

    1. Honestly can start right now. Just at the moment focusing on fixing this mess, or at least minimizing damage, on Etoro before taking on anything new. Really just been less vocal as well as have been busy with work as we come to the end of the year.

  7. Hi Mo,

    It’s all just a test of our ability in patience, discipline and brm.
    We still owe you a big one for everything you showed so far

    Just out of curiosity, couple of weeks ago i watched a documetary about Martin
    Armstrong.I was wondering about your opinion about it.

  8. Mo in any case, thanks for all the hard work and care! On topic I do believe such big announcements like rate hikes are proceeded with a big rally, so it could well be that the ninja trades both end in profits. But its your call and I trust your judgement!
    Good luck !

Leave a Reply