Updates

Update: 15th January 2016

Well total carnage today. Global equities all deeply in the red. Oil close to $29 dollars. Every analyst surveyed completely off about the US data, which showed retail contracted in December rather than expanded. This in combination with Decembers shopping patterns and warmer than normal weather has spooked the markets. JPY has gained massively on risk aversion and its looking worse than ever. I have never seen it move this way. Declining 200+ pips daily for the last week against the pound and with Japan in recession at that! The markets are panicking like a lost child in the woods, and I do not see how or why it has gotten this bad. Clearly there is something wrong with my strategy. I do not understand how something that has worked so well for such a long period of time could fall apart in just 6 weeks. No point hiding that I wiped out on Saxo bank today, so there goes several hundred thousands dollars of my own money and something I put years into. So at that, I am calling it a day and taking a step back to rethink things. Clearly something is very wrong with my logic  (maybe even possible delusions) .

To those who are still around, I am willing to let the GBPJPY go as low as 160 and the GBPCHF to 1.40 before I cut them entirely. If you are not willing to do so, then please close them manually at any time. Really not in the mood the write more today, so good luck to everyone with trades . To all the bottom feeders, feel free to keep up the insults that have been flying for the last 6 weeks, I have stopped caring after today.

 

35 Comments

  1. Thank you for the journey Mo, but that’s enough for me. All the very best to you and your copiers. I wish you all the success in the future.
    Have a great weekend.
    Paul

  2. I was stopped out today aswell. I dont think your strategy has been wrong, I think we have been really unlucky.

    Anyway take the weekend and rest and think about it then come back stronger than ever.

    Cheer up! 🙂

  3. Sad to hear Mo. Hope and think your come back stronger.
    . Don’t think there is much wrong with your strategy. You just got caught by the circumstances, not the strategy.
    Best regards

  4. Hi Mo!

    I got stopped out a few days ago 🙁 Will never blame you as the market is really messed up in this beginning of year and I think it has been bad for everyone. I will come back and copy you again for sure as you are one of the very best I’ve seen around.

    I don’t use to comment but I read your posts everyday and feel really inspired by your analysis!

    We all know that there are good and bad times and you’re doing your best as it’s also your money in play!

    Will continue to follow you and your posts every single day!

    Thanks and never forget that you are great,
    André

  5. Hey Mo,

    Thanks for the update, no-one was expecting this and nothing you could have done.

    Not sure if anythings wrong with your logic, more so the markets!!

    Keep your chin up mate, what doesn’t kill us makes us stronger!

    Peace brother

  6. Hey Mo,

    I’m still here also…last few weeks have been a real desaster, so now it’s time to strike back. Year has just begun and there is money to earn.
    Don’t blame your strategy…your fundamentals are absolutely right, oil-price dropping is just like….
    I’ll stay with you.
    Cheer up, try to relax during the weekend or the next weeks and come back stronger.

    Greetings Nik

  7. Mohamed, sorry to hear that. This is definitely hard on any one. I am not gonna say I feel what you feel right now, May Allah be with you and everyone here. this is life, it’s ups and downs, you have been up for a while, now this is the time for a bit of down before going back to up again. we only need to analyse and learn through the journey so that if it comes again in our way we are better ready for it. take sometime, let that makes you stronger. money comes and goes, you made it and you will make it again. always stay confident. Good Luck bro.

  8. Sorry to hear about that Mo.
    But like everyone her …..it not the strategy it is the marked
    and you will bounce back .

    Best whishes Alexander

  9. Sorry to hear of your loss Mo.

    I’m still in but I don’t think i t will be long. Not all the way to 160 as Ive decided not to add any more funds.
    I hope you find the strength to come back from this, as we will miss you, your insight, expertise, honesty and frankness.

    I hope that the weekend brings you some peace.

    Jon

  10. I am still here ,still with you and the comunity .Think is time for payback ,people always are the same , love you wen you win , hate wen loose .It’s normal ,head up and keep going !

  11. Heya Mohammed,

    thank you for all you ve done for us and your still doing.

    I think you are a very good trader, the market is just mixed up and I think you need to think about your moneymanagement and accept losses. (But I think you already know, by the way i am not in the position to give you advice. As you say afterwards it s easy to analyse mistakes).

    But out there I see nobuddy in etoro who shares his fundemental analyse as you do(big job). And everybuddy can see that you understand how to make a fundemental analyses. Even if we fail now, you can not be always sure, so keep head up. Life goes on.

    For those who need to insult Mo:
    The words for you are really missing. Wake up from your little world, your living in. Ask your self what you expected from the fx markets, is it to invest 100 dollar and become rich soon? Did he asked you to copy him?
    Who pressed the copy button? Didn t see you the risk which etoro is showing to copy mo? Couldn t you stop the trades manually or press the uncopy button as you were no more confident with some or all trades?
    If you deposit money in a fond and it gets a loss, do you go to the bank to insult them? I could go on, but I guess it get s a little bit boring.

    The message is all the same, not Mo did the mistake of loosing money on him, you did as investor. And it s a shame to insult others for your own mistakes. Life will pay it you back. Thats how I see this.

    In my case I try to learn from you (Mo) and I am willing to loose this copytrade (actually by 50%) as long as you don t give up and as long as you stay with your community. If I loose it, but i learnd much out of it, then I was still winning.

    Keep head up, wish you and the community a nice weekend.

    Regards
    Lukas

  12. Hey Mo, thank you for writing to us even in such moments. Its hard for so many of us, and we are with you on this. Your strategy is one of the best, but in my personal and humble opinion just need a bit of tweaking to make it even better. Some people says its because of the market. I would strongly recommend for you to cut your looses and start fresh. Ofcourse if the market starts to show signals in the up direction, we can come back in again (and would only loose part of the rebound profit). Why are you risking going down to 160! please as a humble friend, just requesting you to think about it again. Your strategy just need a minor adaptation. Even if the GBPJPY recovers in a magical way, the damage is done to most of us. Its ok, i am not blaming you… but just as a friends requesting you to think again. Yes, everything is join against the fundamentals… and thats why the market is too risky to play with right now. Maybe we stay sideline for few weeks until it gets better or trade with minimal risks. If last year you turned a 1400% in just 6 months…. that is enough for people to turn their remainder 5-20% balance into full recovery and into profit in 2016. I respect you as a person more than a trader. Persistency will help us all. I have lost over $20k myself. Have manually cut the 2 deep red trades just now. Even after this, i am fully confident.

    As always, its a pleasure reading your blog updates everyday. We have started connected with you in an unusual way. This message is not written from a hatred point of view… but purely from a friend wanting to see you succeed. Please consider my gentle request to reconsider. This is not the market of fundamentals. Survival is more important than profit right now. Thank you and have a great weekend.

  13. My copy got stopped out as I was making some adjustments to protect against just that happening.
    Upside of that is that I was able to recopy and am currently looking at greens against the existing trades.

    Truly sorry to hear about your loss within Saxo – can’t relate to a loss of that magnitude but have confidence that you’ll see those kind of numbers again one day

  14. Dear Mohammed,

    I’m really sorry for your loss, that’s really a big sum of money.

    But please don’t let this unfortunate incident beat you down, and I believe you are stronger than that.

    Do have a good rest and take a good weekend off. You need that and you deserve that.

    Regards,
    Liszen

  15. Mo,, I’m sad that you lost a lot of money on saxo but I’m sure you will get back on feet, after a 1500% on etoro last year, you can make it, i will stick with you anyway 😉
    Enjoy your weekend, recharge and see you next week

  16. I have cut the positions. Had to do it because DD was almost 85% and it could touch 95% in the coming week. GBP/USD may go to 1.22 in the end of 2016 with sharp spikes up sometimes, but it could really bring down GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF as well, I thought it is better to take out a little amount rather than losing all. You have good techniques but risk factor is too much, no doubt great profit could come with great risk only, but a little tweak to to your strategy may bring a little low results but bring risk to little down as well.

    Thanks

  17. I’ve been stopped out lost 2500USD. Now my friend we gotta get it back. As soon as I’ve been stopes out I pressed the copy button again. So… I’m in Again! We gotta learn this lesson. Don’t fight the market. He is stronger and always wins. I’m not saying the situation will not revert soon… But a lot of people has been wiped out. Including you Mo. So next time lets use some money management and keep the SL where we put them. If it is triggered we wait and see what happens. We can always get in again.

    Keep up the good work and respect those who were here with you. Don’t vanish yourself after this and help us getting out money back from the market.

  18. Sorry to read this Mo. My own losses pale in to insignificance next to yours. I echo what others have said in that your grasp of fundamentals is fantastic. These recent events have been extraordinary. What a sad way to end it. Given the instability I have cashed out but remain a supporter and will be following with interest. I would be keen to return to investing under you once the dust settles. You however may not have the appetite for it.
    All the best mate. Now I’ve bowed out you should see things turn.

  19. Damn i lost 300$ which is all my equity and thought i lost the world
    so sorry to hear about your loss mo and hope you get better and don’t blame strategy there is no possible way to expect the nasty war between saudi oil and iran oil
    godspeed mo

  20. Hi Mo,

    Extremely sad to hear you say that. Been following your posts every day. I was stopped out a few days ago, recopied now. It doesn’t mean the strategy is flawed. The markets have reacted in a very weird way. Every time you think it has hit the bottom, it finds a new bottom. Best to take a step back and take some time off. Like it has been said before, it’s only the beginning of the year and the markets are sure to bounce back soon.

    Have a good weekend. Will continue to look forward to your posts.

    Regards,
    Rakesh

  21. Hello Mohammed,

    Hate to hear about your loss on saxo. I think you have the best idea right now, to take a step back and evaluate your current strategy, it just cannot be productive to go straight back to trading with such a heavy loss weighing over you.
    It takes a big man to keep posting here in these times, you should take pride in that. Still with you on HF, once you’ve cleared your head from this mess, let’s make that 1k into those 468k for 2018!
    Stay strong!

  22. I was upset about losing 3 months worth of gains and a part of my investment..but I can’t even begin to fathom how it must feel to lose years worth of trading capital within weeks. What a nightmare!

    Take care of yourself and take your time to recover, rebuild and maybe come back better and stronger out of this. Fx is really ruthless.

    I’m sticking around as I think you’re the master of fundamentals and I’ve learned so much from you in such a short time. Your strategy works great in regular market conditions. However the way the markets currently behave is crazy and you need some sort of emergency break when bad news hit one after the other. I’m a noob in trading so I don’t know how to handle these situations. But Im confident an experienced trader like you will come out of this strong.

    All the best.

  23. Mo sorry to about the big loss buddy, it’s not a easy one to swallow by all means, I believe a lot of people have been caught out with the markets and the oil war that’s going on, sometimes it’s better to step back then come back after a period, I did late year after a 10 month break from it all and to be honest I’m still no better at finding my feet, keep your chin up mate and come back stronger 🙂

  24. Hi Mo,

    I am new to etoro, started at the end of December. My brother reccomended you to follow and I have to say I am disapointed in the way the market has fallen apart over the last few weeks, not you. I have read your updates and can see no massive errors in your strategy and you are clearly a very intelligent man. I placed my investment with money I can afford to loose if need be, I am in this until things ether turn around, or my account drys up. Chin up mate, there is no way you could have seen this coming.

  25. Hi Mo, this is bad for all of us but I feel especially for you. No matter what happens, things just went against you & it doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. I know you’ve done your best & am grateful for that, you’ve been honest and open and have had a bad start to the year, I hope things turn around for you, even if you get SL’d you can get it back. I’d like to stick with you if you want to try again? Don’t lose confidence, you were doing amazing & lots of traders have lost, not only you, so don’t single yourself out, it’s just seriously bad luck for many people. You’re a good person from what I’ve gathered and I wish you all the best. (I’m not normally an arse licker) so you must be ok. I hope you can get some rest this weekend. Take care.

  26. Do you still think that those trades will go up or are you rethinking that too?

    I have just got stopped out again losing over $4000 in the last few months so definitely losing interest in the platform. It seems like everybody else is down too that I’m copying. I don’t know whether I should reinvest in you again with the way things are going right now I think it’d be silly to get stopped out again and lose the entire account. What’s everyone else doing? Holding tight hoping for bounce back to green soon?

  27. Just think we have been really unlucky with global events, your strategy is absolutley solid , dont blame yourself , take a month off and start again we will be here !

  28. Mo,

    Don’t be too encouraged, please. You have been doing well for many,many months. There’s always a bad month or so, everyone knows that. I know that, after this weekend, you will see things in a different way, maybe work a bit on money management, close trades quicker when they are dropping. (but hey, I am a complete noob, so I shouldn’t even give you any advice,hehe). You are still doing well on hotforex, so I am sure there is absolutely nothing wrong with your approach and strategy. We believe in you, Mo!

  29. For what it’s worth, I’ve taken the decision to stay away from any pair containing the JPY until GBPJPY reaches 171 again. With the current market sentiment, risks are way too high. My advice is to do the same.
    We will overcome this … One day.

  30. I’m still with you on these trades Mo.
    It is clear how one can get discouraged after your huge loss. It is always easier said than done but hope you can pick yourself and wipe the dust aside and come out of this even stronger.

    Wishing you the best and good luck to all.

  31. I Am also out and lost few thousens. I only can wish you all best of luck. AND about Mo, I can say i feel lucky To know you. Money is just money, and you are a honest Man, worried and honest. You did your best and i have only good words for you. Go for it !!

  32. Hi Mo and hello fellow copiers of Mo, bad months indeed. Compared to you Mo I “only” lost a little, can’t imagine what it must feel like for you. You made money and you can do it again. If not on eToro than on our HF account, but I’m sure you will prevail. I really hope your trades will have a turnaround soon. I know now what my mistakes were and I’m sure you do too. But who knows, maybe you are right by holding on to those trades, you said you had it before and maybe you have it again. I said, I’ll be with you till the end….well in my mind and thoughts I am, but I need a fresh start. I wish you all the best and as soon things turn out, I’ll be back!

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