Updates

Update: 16th December 2015

So things are looking a little better, but make no mistake we are still FAR from a profitable month and still in the red as we write this, with a monthly unrealized loss of equity of approximately 5%. In short, I am not trying to cover up the fact that this month has been a disaster for us.

We managed to close the two USDJPY sells (one intentionally, one with a fat finger) in profit. And as of writing this regained half off the unrealized losses on the account so far. We also opened two new trades, both medium to longer term AUDNZD buy and GBPJPY buy. I have done this as I believe both pairs are currently undervalued. The JPY has enjoyed a show of strength recently due to haven bids and is over-rated in my opinion, while I feel that the GBP is currently undervalued. I did feel earlier that the Sterling would be dragged down further by the Euro as the ECB increased stimulus, but since they did not, my thoughts on the subject have changed. I would also like to point out that the GBPJPY has fallen now for 8 consecutive days and is long overdue a correction.

At the same time, I feel the NZD is overvalued at this time as the markets are still considering RBNZ governor Wheelers comments, without realizing that they are miles away from being anywhere close to his inflation targets. Another reason for picking these crosses was that as we go into a choppy FOMC meeting, I did not want to have excessive USD exposure and at the same time, I did not want to leave money unused. Its a fact that unused capital is effectively useless to us, so this gives us a lower risk way to use the capital while we attempt to get some gains.

With regards to the meeting, I think this will happen tonight:

1.) The fed will raise rates by 25bps.

2.) They will give a dovish outlook but NOT as Dovish as the market expects.

3.) They are highly likely to cite the headwind issues of a strong dollar.

4.) It will be very choppy.

We go in holding an exposed NZDUSD sell. I do not want to close this at this time, as I feel that their is a 60% change it will recover and hit a modest TP in the waves the Fed announcement causes. If it does not and it stops out, then so be it. We tried and sometimes things SL. It will be a loss, but not a catastrophic one.

Another issue today is that (many suspect) once again UK data has been leaked. This strange activity has been happening for months and it is highly disappointing that such activity continues, especially in a country like the UK which is supposed to have regulations preventing such activities. I guess (assuming that the many who suspect this at right) we have to accept that this trend will continue since it seems nothing is being done about it.

Regardless of what happens today, even if it turns badly, my attention for the rest of this week (other than keeping an eye on our trades when I have the change and looking for more opportunities) will be considering a plan of action for next year. As many of you know from January I am planning to place a significant deposit and not make any withdrawals for a period of two years, while I attempt to compound it and see what gains I may realize. I am as of yet undecided whether to do this on Etoro or elsewhere at this point, but will make my mind up before I go on holiday on the 23rd.

Good luck to everyone tonight,

Mohammed

 

22 Comments

  1. Nice as always to read your thoughts MO.
    Good luck to everyone on the FOMC today.

    If you decide to go elsewhere than eToro I hope Im allowed to chase after you and be a follower also there 🙂

    Have a happy and good holliday Mo!

  2. Hi Mo,

    Thanks for the update! Very informative and educational as ever.

    Really hoping that you decide to choose the etoro platform for your 2 year plan, in which case I will follow you with a substantive amount and enjoy the 2 year ride!!! 😉

    Matt

  3. Thank you for the update!
    I just wanna say that the newsletter subscription via email doesn’t seem to work. I realized that I haven’t read so many updates cause I thought I would receive a newsletter email… I ‘ll give it a try and subscribe again in case I have typed my email wrong.

    1. oups! I think it was my fault. I maybe didn’t confirm my subscription back when I subscribed in the first place.
      Thanks again

  4. Mo,

    Nice read as usual, I do hope you stay with eToro (Mute/block feature coming up as you said :D). For the trades, don’t worry about the USD/JPY, green is green, the other traders are long/medium term. Everybody has to be patient.

    Tx for taking care of this community. I really do appreciate it a lot and I do mean A LOT :).

    TX

    Kind regards,

    Ken Provo

  5. Love the way you communicate with us followers and copyers! Your dedication and effort towards us is something very appreciated (by me and many more)! Ups and downs are parts of this business. Hoping you will continue with eToro. I am grateful to be able to follow you!

    Best regards, and Happy Holidays!

  6. Hello ,
    i am here not as much to make money as to teach , how the great traders makes there trades , and the explanations for them .From the time that i follow you ,i have learn a lot , and iam sure that there will be many many more.
    If you decide to change the broker ,i will follow you again / if there is such option/ ,but why dont you think about opening a PAMM , because there are many people whu trust you ,and will invest in you.
    P.S thanks for the update

  7. Hi Mo,

    tx a lot for the information which I’m always waiting for… It’s so informativ for newbees in this market.
    I do hope that you will decide for etoro so that I could ride with you for those 2 years.

    Good luck to all of us!

  8. The reason i dont want you to do that significant deposit on etoro account is because if you do a deposit the ratio of money used from copiers will reduce there are these big popular investors with big accounts and when i copy them with 200$. 1 or 2 $ are used up in a position there is no significant profit ! I dont have much money to invest in the market but when you use 10 % equity unlike people with big accounts who use 1 or 2 % i make 1-2 $ that way otherwise its 0.01-0.1$ ! I know you have the control ,because i am not as good as you that’s why im copying and learning from you but making 30-50% gain in a big account is difficult anyways do what you want .
    Im thankful for the money you have made me you are a great trader !

  9. Again direct and concrete market overview. Wishing you nice holiday period Mo…. and lets clear on Green the desk before Christmas. Hope you will stay on Etoro in the future nevertheless allocated money. I have a plan to increase my deposit too and for sure will allocate more of my funds under your commander!

  10. Th@nks for the upd@te Moh@mmed @nd wishing us the very best. I do see lots of Greens coming Bro:)

    PS: H@ving @n issue with my keybo@rd with the letter “@” . Sorry.

    1. lol, I can’t stop laughing bro!

      anyway, you can use on-screen keyboard if you use MS Windows. I guess Mac has probably one too, though I don’t know

  11. No surprise at the critical moment I am unable to login to etoro. Sigh. Bassam your post did make me laugh! Best get some green trades in the bank to buy you a new keyboard

  12. Mo, u are great, I’m waiting to help you with the website design, so you have a nice looking one :P. Im sure you are busy trading!

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