Updates

Update: 23rd March 2016

Okay let’s start with a few things. Firstly let me say that it feels good to be communicating to you again in full sentences rather than badly typed tweets on an hourly basis. We have had a most challenging month. From my part it has been physically exhausting having to run around from place to place attending to my work and managing our portfolio at the same time during these most difficult and uncertain market times. Fortunately through sticking together as a community and offering each other both moral and emotional support we have gotten through this difficult month despite all odds being against us and we have recorded what would be a market beating yearly performance in only a matter of weeks. So well done everyone and thank you for being a part of it.

Some things I want to iron out once and for all:

Before I continue any further there are a few things that I wish to get out of the way and I wish to make them concrete and certain from right now so that there can be no more confusion.

Firstly everyone should understand that we are in this together. It does not mean that at the first sign of trouble people should jump ship. I understand there are times it looks very frightening but as we have proven now four times consistently we are able to recover from crippling drawdowns and jump back to profits just as quickly as we were hurt. This is because we make every calculated trade knowing that if it goes against us we have a certain amount of margin where we can place a counter hedge from which we can react and emerge stronger. These calculations are based on the assumption that everyone understood that we are in this together for the long-term. By jumping ship you reduce our margins and therefore endager the entire community. So please if you do not understand this key point then withdraw from this journey. You may do so freely but please if you want to do so then do so now and not at a time when your participation is crucial. If you are not willing to swim together with all of us or drown together with all of us (should we suffer this fate) then this is not the journey for you. Please consider this and take a moment to think about it and if you want to withdraw please do so and we will thank you for your time and for being with us thus far.

Secondly I wish to clarify that our targets are not regular targets and are much more ambitious than the markets. With that potential reward comes higher risk, so of course you will have periods of drawdown. But as you’ve seen these periods do not last very long And it has rarely taken longer than five days to ever recover from any temporary situation with existing resources to emerge back into profit. However with that said, as always you should only be investing with money that you can afford to never see again should a crisis occur. In short if you need to withdraw your capital because you need it to pay bills or honour commitments, then at the risk of sounding rude, you really should not be investing it with me in the first place. That’s irresponsible. Once again if you are one of the people in this situation then please do not feel that you are committed to stay with us. In fact if you are one of the people in this situation then I do recommend that online investment is truly not for you if you are investing with money that you need for other commitments which may be more important.

Thirdly I wished just to address those who seem to like to criticise our current strategy. The truth is that you are entitled to your opinion but when I’m fighting the market I really do not need people to tell me that I am doing things wrong and they would be better off if I didn’t apply my strategies specially when they help us in recovering from massive draw downs and posting market beating returns. It’s not helpful, it is demoralising and if you are not comfortable with the way I am handling things then you should not let me invest with your capital. When I am recording monthly profits of more than 40% in equity and 70% in a balance despite four central banks completely doing the opposite of my fundamental assumptions and I am getting criticisms from some, it makes me scared to think what would happen on a month should I finish with a loss. It is also concerning to see that when hedging enables us to record a profit of $75,000 rather than a loss of $30,000 that people are worried about the $300 in fees that we had to pay to keep those positions open (come on people look at the bigger picture are you really telling me that that $300 to hold those open positions was not a worthwhile investment?). I’m not saying that you’re not entitled to your opinion of course you are. Every human being has a right to their opinion. But what I’m saying his is that if you feel that I’m doing things incorrectly then clearly I am not someone that you should be investing in.

There is one last thing I wish to clarify. The reason why I closed our Euro sells after I heard that the Brussels attacks were confirmed acts of terrorism (for the record I had these positions open long before the explosions occurred) and the reason why I refused to add more sells to the sterling was quite simply because I refuse to profit from speculation on the misery of others or in this case the loss of human life. While the purpose of us investing is to make money, we are better than this and we do not have to rely on tragic events such as this in order to capitalise (as easy as it would have been). In such situations I don’t think about how much money we could make but rather I think about how much of ourselves we can lose if we stoop to such levels. Please understand that with me you will always get my views, my honesty and my communication in good times and in bad. That is principally the only guarantee that I can give you.

What happens next?

To be honest I did wish to kick off this post by finishing my coverage of my views on what the Federal reserve did last week and where I think the global outlook is generally going. However given some of the feedback that I have been receiving in the last 24 hours and some of the issues that have upset me, I wanted to address those crucial issues first as I feel that they are the biggest threat to our community and that I had to address them as early as possible. Unfortunately I do not have much time left today as I have other commitments that I have been neglecting due to a massive work schedule. However, tomorrow, as is my usual habit I will begin posting my daily commentary and opinions (hopefully not boring all of you with them).

Our account on HF:

We currently in terms of both equity and balance are significantly ahead of our monthly target of 20%. At the time of writing this on net deposits of 114k this month, we have recorded a profit on equity of $45,000 (40%) and balance of $73,000 (64%). This has been in spite of having to fight against the market when 4 of the world’s most important central banks did the complete opposite of what we expected them to do. I consider this to be a monumental achievement and one that I’m proud of. Not much else to say really in this regard. I let the numbers and results speak for themselves.

As always I wish you all the best of luck and I encourage all of you to think carefully about what I have written in this post. We are at a point now where we are doing very well and can continue to soar to new highs. If this is what we can do when everything goes against us think about what we can do when we have less bad luck. Then realise that we can only will do it together.

Mohammed

12 Comments

  1. Great work Mo!
    It was kinda scary ride with the DD (even tho I can afford to loose the money its not fun anyway :P), but you handlet it brilliantly once again.

    Its a pleasure to follow you 🙂 Have a nive day!
    These post NEVER get me bored, they are so nice to read!

  2. Hi Mo,

    Thanks for the update and welcome back to a normal schedule! Looking forward to your updates and insights here as I don’t have a twitter account so cannot follow you.

    Kudos on not profiting from the Brussels tragedy. Some will disagree, but my soul isn’t for sale, glad to see that yours doesn’t seem to be either.

    Regarding withdrawal, when I started this account I planned to lock in gains at the end of each month (10% of profits, never principal). This is for two reasons: 1. In a time of difficulty I may need to deposit into the account; having this on hand will make that easier. 2. We are taking calculated risk with the aim of high rewards, locking in a portion of those rewards as we go along fits my strategy.
    This won’t be done if the account is in drawdown and it hasn’t been done yet, but I don’t see this as undesirable or detrimental to the account. I hope that you agree.

    Happy trading and looking forward to great times ahead!

  3. Well said, Mohammed! Thanks bro for everything. Let me congratulate you and give you a special thank you for your latest achievement. I am proud to be part of this community, a community that you initiated, a community that is proud to have you.

  4. “In such situations I don’t think about how much money we could make but rather I think about how much of ourselves we can lose if we stoop to such levels.” – Given the awful nature of the events I appreciate the word ‘beautiful’ doesn’t have a place but that is a beautiful viewpoint and says to me you’re someone I want to work with, I support that position entirely.

    It’s certainly been a rough road and we’ve seen a lot go on the other platform too but I’ll stick with it all the way. To agree with KashaC’s comment above I had a similar money management strategy in mind whereby a portion of the profits could be withdrawn every 30 days for the purpose of hedging and having funds available in the future to deposit during potential difficulties. What are you views on this?

  5. Hi Mo,

    I’d like to invest into you on HF and I was wondering if this is possible, I won’t have need of the amount I’d invest so I can leave it in for a long time however I’d still like to take some profits each month. Would it be possible to still invest with you on HF now and if yes how much would you recommend?

    Thanks and keep up your good work

  6. Yes! Always look forward to these – keep ’em coming, we won’t get bored. 100% behind this journey.

    PS: On a personal note, I lived in Bxl for 3 years and have many friends there (a few of them lost relatives or friends), so the attacks affected me more than usual … I’m so glad to see your stance on this. The possibility of making money should never supersede our integrity and moral values. Thx.

  7. I have brought up hedging because I thought part of this community was to learn from each other and to be able to discuss strategies etc and I never intended to demoralise you. When it comes to hedging many people have a scewed look on it (and some abuse it to fool people into hedging schemes that never make money). I have never questioned your honesty with your hedging but I just wanted to see how you reasoned. After all if I am to put my money in your care I think I have some right to question decisions to see if I want my money to remain in your care. Better now than later, like you just said, right? So now I have adjusted my investment to what I feel comfortable with and from now on I will not withdraw except for profit.

    PS: I might not have asked at all if I could get a good overview of the trades you’ve made, but on HF I see no way to do it that wouldn’t take hours.

    All the best and good luck to us all.

  8. I had some doubts , but now I will keep silent,, your the man 🙂 keep up the good work 🙂 I am in Russia on holiday and am delighted with last couple of days 🙂

    Wish you all the best , and a brigt future it will be 🙂

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