Updates

Update: 25th March 2016

First of all, please allow me to wish a happy Easter to all of you. I wish you a very festive time with your families and loved ones.

Todays events:

Due to being Good Friday, the markets have been very quiet and liquidity is ultra-tight. Therefore we traded very cautiously today. Nonetheless all of our trades were closed with a small profit and we managed to increase both the balance and the equity of the account and increase our profits although it was by only a modest amount.

In line with our expectations, Japanese CPI showed deflationary pressures on the Japanese economy and the yen softened somewhat on further expectations of intervention and easing from the bank of Japan. I hope some of you took our advice yesterday and went along in Japanese equities and short on the yen.

US data which just came out showed that for the second time this month US GDP was revised upwards. From its initial value of 0.7% it was increased to 1% and then to 1.4%. At the same time Q4 consumer spending was revised upwards from 2% to 2.4%. Corporate profits were weaker than expected but this is quite simply in my opinion due to the dollar being much stronger in Q4. Therefore all of these recession crybabies who were talking about how growth in the world is slowing down once again find themselves with egg on their faces and it is no surprise to me that all of them have blown their accounts (in many cases for the 10th time etc).

Please be aware of these guys who try to con you for easy money. They span left right and centre and post graphs about how the world is on the brink of recession without understanding even the first basic of economics. If you actually look at the graphs that they show, all they show a line is getting higher and higher. Of course what goes up will eventually come down however none of these people have actually identified a point. All that is happening in their charts is that new highs are being achieved every week and by betting against these markets all they have done is lose hundreds of thousands of dollars of other people’s money while losing maybe $10 of their own.

Newsflash people, in a recession GDP doesn’t grow it shrinks. Unemployment doesn’t decrease it increases. How difficult can this possibly be to understand? Do not let these people try to put you into fear mode because that is their intention. Theymake you feel everything is going to fall apart and use that as an opportunity to offer you a deal that is too good to be true because fear is a great motivator and these scammers capitalise on that. Don’t fall for it. It is actually surprising that a certain network that claims to care for people’s safety will ban a certain account from the trader for a week preventing them from hedging and protecting people’s equity and yet at the same time it will allow these scammers to create multiple accounts having blown many previous accounts and then promote them and invite them as guest speakers and advise people to invest in them. Surely by now you have understood that this certain site is nothing more than a disguised casino. Realise that and remember the old saying that the house always wins. How many more times must they ban people because they’re quite simply winning too much? How many more times must a pull down their platform at the most “ convenient” moments?

Our community:

With regards to our community I have created a new tab on the blog which will be updated regularly which will track on current performance and our targets. I feel that it will be inspirational in both good times and bad to show us all that despite our ambitious goals and despite how far we may be from them when we look at things in proportion to the timeline we are actually not as far away as we think and in many cases are sometimes even months ahead of schedule. Please do take the time to have a look when you get the chance. I think it will pleasantly surprise you as much as a pleasantly surprised me when I calculated the numbers earlier today.

In addition, I have temporarily suspended the forum. It has completely failed to be the centre of learning and sharing of knowledge and information that I hoped it would be and at this point in time I cannot bring myself to find the motivation to maintain it. In short it failed in its objectives and I feel that until I am able to do this full time, my efforts and time are best spent on concentrating on trading for us as a group, updating this blog with my fundamental analysis and outlooks and opinions and communicating with the community regularly via Twitter. Perhaps in future I’ll be in a position where I am able to put the forum back online and dedicate more time to managing it and contributing to it. Please rest assured that all data that was on this forum has not been deleted and has been backed up and can be restored at a moments notice when I feel the time to be suitable.

As promised, I’ve also taken the opportunity today to familiarise myself a bit more with the platform recommended to me by the Anonymous Economist. So far it is promising but I still need more convincing before I’m in a position to recommend it. Please do not think that I have forgotten. But also please be patient. As many of you know, having been burnt in the past by a certain site of gangsters, I can be forgiven somewhat for being overly cautious and overprotective of our community before I recommend anything.

Happy Easter everyone, wish you all a great weekend,

Mohammed

14 Comments

  1. Great work with the graph Mo, will be interesting to keep an eye with. Now enjoy your holiday!

    Ps. Hope in the future you are able to do this fulltime and do something you enjoy 🙂

  2. Just a question, how is your calculation to figure out the end equity? Just wonder how much my initial deposit would be after two years if you are able to keep up your goals 🙂

    1. At the moment. I assumed net deposits remain at the current level of 114k. Net deposits was calculated as total deposits vs total withdrawals. The reason is that im planning to lock the account from new investments after i meet HF on the 6th, so the community stays as it is at the moment (possibly with a few more if i can get HF to lower the deposit amount)

    2. The end equity is figured by 20% increase each month over the 2 years as a target. Ideally at the end balance will equal equity as all trades would have been closed.

  3. Nice update! Keep up the good work.
    Concerning the forum, I can imagine it has a little wild grow.
    Maybe we really need to switch over to something more dynamic like Slack chat and for the general information flow this blog.

  4. Hello Mo,
    thank you for another high quality update of your opinion on the markets and great work on our account. I really liked the idea of a learning plattform and I am happy that you just paused the idea for a while (and not skipped it) – this definately would be a full-time-job – and I am sure you are the perfect guru =). I am curious what the future will bring!

    In my last post earlier this week I was writting you that I was missing information about up-to-date objectives and timetable for our account.
    Therefore, I really like to thank you for implementing the performance table showing our goals and results. Perhaps you can use this part of the website to summarize all important fund information for the group and newcomers in the future, e.g. fees, long-term strategies, money management etc.

    Regarding your meeting with HF I would strongly recommend you to talk with them about the topic of withdrawels and their experiences. I am highly concerned that people will get nervous when we finally hit the million and above. Just think about the volatility we had in the last weeks… This could lead to a chain reaction of people withdrawing money within hours and days during a period which is months ahead of our 2 years timetable.

    My proposal would be to think about closing the account for withdrawels starting from a certain deadline. I talked to my account manager and she said its possible. This is hard to say but in my opinion one should not invest in this nest egg fund if he can´t afford to leave 500$ away for 2 years.

    Perhaps there is also a solution inbetween: one (the actual fund) open for withdrawels and another new one closed. The second fund could be a copy of all trades of the first one so that you don´t have more workload in managing the funds. People in the first fund would be allowed to withdraw during all times – however, with the risk of unexpected losses during a period of high withdrawels. You could also combine this 2 fund solution with different “minimum investment” rules.

    Happy easter holidays for everyone, have a good one!

    Kind regards

    Christoph

  5. Hi Mo,
    It’s all going the right direction! You got the core of the thing.
    Looking forward to hearing from your meeting in April. Let’s hope for some positive news!

    Happy Easter!
    Thomas

  6. Sorry to bring up hedging again but this time it is not aimed at you but just to educate and warn people in general and to give a good example of hedging being misused to scam people and why equity is much more important than balance and closed profit. Check out the HF manager list and the two Greenzone managers, currently at ranking 14 and 18. Also check out their site at http://www.greenzone-invest.com/home.php
    They have been brought to their knees now after 2 years running, when the official plan was to start withdrawing profit by now. Up until a month ago they boasted about how much profit their accounts had, while in reality that was only closed profit and when taking floating P/L into account they all had massive losses. They even try to disguise this fact on their site. Click on statistics and check out their Greenzone accounts and you see that they show profit with an extra big font. Floating P/L however is conspicuously absent from its usual place on the line below and is instead hidden away in the advanced statistics.

    One would think that if these were serious people there would be some notice or post on their forum about why suddenly they have a massive drop in everything, but since they are silent I have to assume their goal was to scam people all along. It was not long ago another similar hedging balance/profit focused account also crashed on HF, all the way to zero. Yukio Institute I think they were called, and they had been ranked at 1 for a long time with loads of deposited money. Don’t be fooled by these hedgers people. Read the stats and don’t be fooled into just looking at closed profit and balance.

    And remember, HF lets these people have these accounts. HF is actually a heaven for these type of scammers since HF:s stats and graphs are so heavily focused on increase in balance and closed profits etc instead of focusing on equity and taking floating P/L into accocunt. They have this useless Gain% value which only serves to fool people into thinking managers are profitable when they are not. So if we are to talk down a certain other platform, I would say HF isn’t better. I would in fact say they are worse, judging from how they provide stats that are like made to be abused. So let’s not pretend HF are out for anything else but to earn money from us. Always be careful and don’t trust them anymore than you would a used car salesman.

    1. However remember all brokers exist to “make money from you”. But at least HF haven’t locked people out of accounts, constantly told lies, or had a platform that they conveniently pull offline at key market moments. They also respond to questions.

  7. Hi Mo

    The easter bunny looks to have bring back your daily updates.

    What a great gift.

    Although knowing that you were professional visiting our region, and although knowing that it was quitte impossible for you to give us a daily update (I urgently need to create a twitter account), the past days and weeks didn’t feel the same without a moment to analyse your thoughts about the global economic picture.

    Due to a very busy professional life I’am not a very active member but do know I enjoy and appreciate your efforts and insights very much.

    Enjoy Easter!

    Mat

  8. Another thing to consider about withdrawals: to pay tax from the profit.
    Let’s consider that Mo’s yearly targets are met (we all wish). In that case the initial deposit will increase about 10x. A 1000 USD deposit would become 10000 USD.
    Every country has its own tax law, however, in general I think the tax for such sum would be in thousands. And that’s a sum which one would rather pay directly by withdrawing it than pay from other savings (if are any). Why would do so?

    Increasing risk aversion. Paid tax is real (loss), while account equity is floating. Let’s now consider a worst case scenario (because people might visualize such scary situation) that the account in the second year shrinks to its initial value (zero net profit, -90% of first year’s equity). No profit in that year means no tax to pay, but one would end up with net loss (probably) higher than just losing his whole deposit (deposit minus paid tax).
    In my (mafia) country I have to pay tax 33% of the profit. This would make me think carefully, what level of risk I am willing to accept. Right now I would take an increased risk, but it might change with time.

    Withdrawals for tax purposes are therefore real and can be expected in about a year. These are only my speculations, I would appreciate if others expressed their opinions on this topic too.

    Kind regards

    1. I am fairly sure you would not have to pay tax any unless you actually withdraw.

      If anything this seems another reason NOT to withdraw early to me, so as to avoid paying tax unnecessarily on the withdrawn amount.and eating into potential future profits.

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