Updates

Update: 2nd December 2015

Firstly, I wish to say Happy National Day to everyone in the United Arab Emirates.

Daily outlook:

As predicted in our update yesterday, Australian GDP beat expectations. This is good for us as such thoughts added with the belief that the RBA would hold rates is why we cut our AUDUSD sell with only 6 pips profit. Incidentally, if we held we would now be 110 pips in the red, so cutting with a small profit was the right thing to do. At the same time our EURAUD short idea posted on the forum on Sunday has been a monumental success this week and anyone who entered that trade would be 350 pips better off as of today. Incidentally, I went for my CADJPY long suggestion instead which yielded a much smaller profit, but we can not always pick the best of our trade ideas. Such is life, we won’t always make the best choices, but as long as we do not make the wrong ones, I am happy.

So what happens next? I suspect US firmness to return today after profit taking, if not I suspect it shall return tomorrow. There is a lot of commentary from people about yesterdays ISM Manufacturing PMI being the lowest since 2009. While this may sound sensational, it is by no means a disaster when you look at the data beyond its headline and most of its hype its people trying to sound clever or show an “understanding” that they clearly do not have. Trust me, if anyone of note thought that this figure was a major worry for the FED, then the USD would have tanked A LOT more, especially given the profit taking that it experienced after its 5 day rise.

Account:

On to our account, despite being in the red yesterday, we are still up 1% overall this week (at the time of writing this) due to respectable performances on Monday. The account is VERY safe and the trades are still fundamentally sound. Unless the US employment data is a disaster on Friday, then at this point I see no reason why we should not finish the week with a nice profit.
We still have a USDJPY buy open and an NZDUSD sell. We still hope to profit from both this week.

Community:

I literally have 200+ messages in my inbox to go through, so please do not feel neglected if I take time to get back to you. Furthermore, please if it something that isn’t personal, please ask other people in the forum like a foundation graduate. Its a friendly community and everyone is very willing to help.

Also a seasonal warning:

Be careful with high leverage at this time of year. In December liquidity is far tighter than other months of the year and so markets react more violently to transactions. In addition at this time of year many large corporations repatriate (bring back to their home base) foreign funds. This means there are several large transactions that can go on randomly and that can cause sudden unexplained spikes. Make sure that your trades are not thrown into danger by these. P.s. This is not a “big boys playing with you” comment that other “traders” will say then they can not explain what is going on or to excuse their failures. This is a seasonal fluctuation that is real. Please do not let it ruin your trades.

Thats all I can think of for now,

Mohammed

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