So as oil continues to tumble, risk aversion returns. Although it has been softer this time around (and we have not been hit as hard). The Russian foreign secretary is here in the UAE and meeting our leadership today. He has been vocal about wanting to work out a deal, however it remains to be seen if anything suitable can be worked out between the oil producers. After all, even if you could get all the OPEC and Non-OPEC countries to agree (which is not an easy achievement), will the thousands of independent American oil producers also agree to a cut? Its not hard to see why the market is sceptical of any deal being worked out.
The AUD held rates and was doveish, in line with our expectations, and we were able to profit from our AUDUSD sell on Hot Forex. I expect that they want to leave the door open to future possible cuts.
Once again the BOE lives up to its reputation. The Sterling had weakened significantly after construction PMI failed to live up to expectations (although the result of 55 showed VERY respectable growth). At this point we took a short on the cable on HF. Unfortunately, minutes after it was in the green, the former Deputy of the BOE (Gieve) made the bold statement that the central bank would raise rates in the summer and the Sterling jumped to 1.4430 (stopping us out at 1.44) before falling below 1.44 again. While this gave our Etoro positions some much welcome relief, it cancelled out our HF gains from yesterday and today and leaves us with a 0.19% loss so far this month. By no means a disaster, but still a loss none the less and very disapointing considering the manner of its occurrence.
Elsewhere, the Euro gained some strength today on the back of falling unemployment and risk aversion bid. Not much really to add on this.
Otherwise, all else has been silent on the data front. We opened a new USDJPY long on Etoro at 120.43 (I think) and have an order to sell EURUSD at 1.1008. I might cancel this tomorrow and take a manual sell on the pair.
So overall, not a good day and one riddled with drama from the BOE, leaked UK data and markets in panic. Luckily the extend of the damage has been limited – for now,
P.s. Could not figure out how to lock the HF account (though I know its a feature as I have seen many do it) so sent a request to my account rep there for more information. Will keep you all updated on it. Don’t worry, even once it is locked it will not be a permanent lock for the readers here.
P.p.s. If you are not following me on twitter, you really should be. My name there is ohemgeeinvest. I do post trades as I open them on there and do update with news or charts when appropriate during the day.