Updates

Update: 2nd March 2016

Firstly please let me thank you all for the kind wishes while I was ill yesterday. It is greatly appreciated. Now that we have done that, lets get right to it:

What happened today:

Today was an interesting day which showed that pessismists and bears may be living on borrowed time. One of the three major rating agencies, Moody’s, cut its outlook on China and instead of tanking, Chinese equities soared to highs. This is a most encouraging sign that the market has come to its senses and realised that the world is not ending tomorrow. If oil does not completely capitulate this evening (after its inventory report) and equities perform well then Friday’s expected firm NFP and wage earnings will really put the nail in the coffin for all the recession kids. If the current trend persists, they will lose everything very quickly. If you are short on equities, be very careful. Chances are you got hammered the last few days and there could very well be a lot more pain to come.

Eurozone PPI was also terrible, showing massive contraction and I now change my outlook for this month’s ECB action. I feel that now they will have to do even more to combat their stagnant growth and shrinking inflation. I expect them to aggressively cut rates and massively increase their asset purchasing program. Anything short of this will lead the Eurozone into a steep decline from which it can not hope to survive, especially should the UK leave.

After a solid ADP report, it seems equities have pared some gains as people lock in profits and turn their attention to Friday. I highly doubt it is a recovery and is unlikely to rally far, unless of course Oil completely crashes this evening. Be warned my friends.

Our HF Trading:

We had a very mixed day. The morning, we made a killing. In the afternoon, we had poor results.

We made money by buying USDJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY, USDCHF and selling Gold.

We lost money by selling NZDUD (turned to profit after stopping us out…) and selling GBPUSD (I do not understand why this one did not work, but we also got stopped out.)

I am happy to report that despite massive losses in the afternoon that after closing all our trades, we still managed to make a profit today of 1%.

This leaves us in the following situation this week:
Deposits active at start of week: $88,000

Profit made since start of week: $6332.15

Return on investment since start of week: 7.2%

I am happy with this considering the week is only half over and that we were virtually bedridden for one whole day. That and the fact that the market and spreads have been acting against us almost as if it is a national sport.

My suggestion to you:

Prepare for a shift in market sentiment. If you have not already done so, make sure you sign up at our CFD’s and IQ Option recommendations. On Friday I am being sent to Europe for 1 week by work and so will be not very active. However, as I travel from pace to place, I will be posting my suggestions on twitter (its easier to do than here) and you will not want to miss out. With sentiment already sweetening, Friday’s NFP which in my opinion will show a good deal of job creation and improved hourly earnings (due to wage pressures), will simply help banish this panic that has gripped the market since the start of the year, as finally everyone has come to their senses and realised that the FED will move in 2016 and more than once and the ECB will have to act this month:

  1. I was right about the FED doing this last year in December, calling it since August, while everyone sat on the fence saying it could not happen, only to change their minds the month before it happened.
  2. I was right about the BOJ acting earlier this year in January. Remember, everyone else was โ€œshockedโ€ but not yours truly who called it weeks in advance.

Remember this again. While everyone has said this year the FED will not act in 2016 and there will be no rate rises, sine the start of the year I have said they will act 2-3 times and most likely start in June, with a low probability of a March move. Let us see if I am right a third time.

Hope you all had a great day,

Mohammed

P.s. I am trying to get an idea of how returns are being split across the community and if indeed everyone is in the green. Please if you read this, just take a second to let me know your return in % not dollar amounts in the comments below. It will help me understand our overall situation better. It will only take you a second but greatly increase my awareness. Thanks.

29 Comments

  1. Hey Mo,

    thanks for the nice update…again ๐Ÿ™‚

    Return so far about 18%, started copying on 02/11/2016.
    Keep up the good work .

    Greetings Nik

  2. Thanks for the update and the positive start to the week!

    My return looks to be 8.2% since the start of February.
    Thanks again Mo!

  3. Up 5.4%. Been copying since December before you officially started. Unsure why others who started same time have different %. Started with $500 now $527.

  4. I am around 70% up since joining you on HF. I think my entry point was really good :).

    Can I ask in general though. How is it you are able to predict economic data, knowing whether it is more than the consensus or lower? I know you’re not 100% accurate but pretty good. I just wonder what kind of things you are looking at to determine this. You spoke of a model for CAD gdp the other day so it this what you have for other datas, and what does it consist of? Sorry if the question is a little vague and I understand if you don’t want to give away all your knowledge. I am trying to formulate my own ideas and options trades but have no idea what upcoming data will ultimately be and that seems to be the defining factor in price movement day to day.

    Look forward to your suggestions next week and thank you for all your help so far.

  5. Joined HF at 2015-12-30, $500 now $518 uncertain as to why my % is different from any where else.

    Haven’t really bothered with AnyOption or IQ Option having already blown the funds in there playing myself.

    I still have a small amount on *that platform* but by a combination of greed and incompetence I’m quickly whittling that away to nothing. I won’t be adding any funds there.

  6. Hi Mo,

    Thanks for guiding us through the stormy past few weeks!

    I joined on Jan 29. My initial deposit of $1250 is now $1277.65 => 2.2 % increase. And this despite the horrible second week of Feb. Still better than a saving account.
    Going to deposit some more in the next few days. I am guessing the account is doing well under the current market conditions and I need to try and make up for eToro losses.

    With regards to the Plus500 and IQ Option, would you or the community consider making tutorials on how to trade these CFD and option ideas and comment on what the pitfalls are. You were mentioning Juleayr’s method the other day etc.
    It would be very useful for inexperienced people, like myself, to learn and become more and more independent.
    Are you still considering the social trading on anyoption?

    Perhaps it would also be a good idea to create a new thread on the forum that summarize all your advices on options and CFDs. Other members who have executed these ideas can then comment whether they worked or not. Hence, we might get an idea of the success rate.

  7. Hi Mohamed, I hope this reply find you well. So… They say habits are easy to form, you should only repeat a simple act a certain amount of time and viola, you have a new habit. I noticed that one of my new habits (that I can’t go a day without) is to read your posts, I enjoy every single word of it. Thank you Mohammed for taking the time, putting the effort, and keeping us updated.

    As for HF stats; I joined you the 6th of January. After Paid Fees & Outstanding Fees deduction, I got a +13.476% profit. My account shows a current participation of 0.599% and it has changed a couple of times during the past month.

    Have a great day Mohammed and wish you bon voyage to Europe ๐Ÿ˜‰

  8. Hello Mo,

    Good to hear you’re doing well again!

    My current profit is 12,2857%. I started on 27-01-2016 (76%) and made another top-up (24%) on my balance at 21-02-2016.

    Kind regards,
    Wilrik

  9. right now Balance is up 3.556%, equity is up 3.118%, joined yesterday March 1st, somewhat late night I guess (I have GMT-3 time)

  10. I deposited 500 USD on 26.01.2016
    Now my equity is 568.62
    Up 13.7%

    Thanks a lot ๐Ÿ™‚

    I will make another deposit soon.

  11. Hi Mo,

    Thanks for taking the time to do all that you have been doing, I am learning quite a lot about the markets in general and Forex in particular. Like many others here, I look forward to your daily posts and admire your resolve through everything these past few months. Hope to become more a part of the community as time goes on and contribute to it as well.

    I am only on HF atm, since I am still quite new and have limited funds I can afford to lose. I am up about 10.3% since joining in mid-February.

  12. Thanks for update, Mo.
    Up 6,2% since 4 jan (have increased deposit on the way, so probably different from others joining at the same time). That ‘s based on equity right now (a little down since earlier today ๐Ÿ™‚ )

    -Rune

  13. Hi Mo,

    Feel I have to be anonymous as I am still trying to escape the clutches of another broker (Oh the paranoia).

    So HF, joined in January or February (can’t quite remember when). $650 has become $668.59, Thats just under 3%

    I hope they are sending you to one of the warmer European countries, I’ve actually had snow today

  14. Hi Mo,
    Thx again for Your interesting thoughts !
    I joined HFon January 11 and am up 13,6 % so far.
    Good night all!
    Thomas

  15. Joined on 30/12 with 1192USD Balance now 1229 so 2.7% gain.
    Nothing to scoff at but also not making much headway it would seem compared to some other % seen above. Quite confused with HF..

    I guess because as people added on my overall stake (now 1.2%) reduced and so am profiting – relatively- less now that things are going better again vs the bit of pain we were in at the start? Then again your stats on HF show me an 11% gain in January, only feb a losing month at tiny -0.87 so how I end up at 2.7% gain personally I don’t quite get…

    Anyway thanks for the update as always, and enjoy Europe!

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