Updates

Update: 30th March 2016

The question I’m asking myself right now is if there is a competition between the global central bank’s to see who can be the most inefficient and communication. How is it possible that no less than four central bankers state that the current flow of data means that the bank will have to act soon with possibly April being on the table, and then just a day later their governor Janet Yellen says the complete opposite.

I really don’t get what is going on with this central bank. They submitted their dot plot in December forecasting their inflation and growth estimates and their expectations to raise rates four times in 2016. Then in March, after all of their estimates have been outperformed by the data and inflation proves to be picking up months ahead of schedule, they cut their expectations to only two. This makes no sense to me. In addition it’s almost as if Janet Yellen is scared to increase rates again. She talks about her fears that inflation is not sustainable and there is no evidence of it continuing to rise, but it has been consistently rising for the last 15 months and unemployment has been decreasing which will put substantial pressure on wages and substantial upward pressure on inflation. If the Fed keeps delaying, it’s going to be left in a position where it is forced to raise rates and instead of a small increase of only 25 it might have to do a more significant increase catching the market completely by surprise and sending equities into oblivion. The Federal reserve has the market so confused at the moment that not even the Private payrolls employment figures that came out today and beat expectations could ensure any confidence in the dollar.

Our situation:

The situation is completely desperate at the moment and I am completely to blame for it. Nobody else and especially not the platform. The blame rests solely on my shoulders for behaving in a completely idiotic way. Being months ahead of schedule one would think that I would have been happy and satisfied and not taken risks, but being greedy I saw an opportunity for us to keep growing exponentially and I took it.

Firstly I acted on some bad technical advice which I believed gave us the perfect entry point given my fundamental outlook (without verifying it, since I am a complete fool) and that whittled away a significant part of our profits. In addition a few hours later Janet Yellen completely contradicted the other members of the Federal reserve sending the dollar to its lowest point since October 2015.

As many of you know usually I don’t see this as a setback as we have been able to headshot of the situations are no less than four previous occasions. Unfortunately this fifth time will be more difficult due to people withdrawing margins and leaving us with less firepower to react. This particularly cuts me deeply as I appeal to all of those who wanted to jump ship to do so last week. It seems that many of the people who insisted that they were completely committed decided to abandon us all when unity was the most important weapon in our arsenal.

Never mind. Sitting around and being miserable feeling sorry for myself won’t get us out of this situation. So we have one last plan which if executed without a single mistake will not only rectify this situation but also put us back into profit. We closed our USDCHF longs at a loss to free up margin giving us the ability to turn the account net neutral on the cable. At the end of the day sentiment in the market changes quickly and as more solid US data comes out and the UK referendum gets closer, I believe the cable will fall to new lows. So this plan is very simple and hopefully will work. We let our current cable buy turn even more green and set its SL in a safety Green zone and then wait for the cable to reverse its gains and ride it on the way down hopefully to profit. To summarise this is the last card (the weak ace in our sleeve). We quite simply have to catch the turn at the right time.

Regardless of whether this plan works or not ( if it works account deposits would be doubled by the time of the streets are closed), I will be calling it a day at the end of it. My foolish actions of the last 24 hours have shown that I’m not yet responsible enough to trade for other people and that as a group we are not mature enough to completely stick together. It seems that not everyone in this party understood that we all either have to swim together or drowned together. Every time things start to look at all bad, there are always a few who immediately scramble for the lifeboats leaving everyone else to drown. It’s this sort of selfish attitude that means we probably won’t be able to hatch out of this for a fifth time and will probably fail. Regardless of the odds being stacked massively against us, I will do my best. I owe everyone that stuck around that much for their support. Words can’t begin to describe how terrible I feel about letting everyone down. It was all going so well until 24 hours ago.

Mohammed

7 Comments

  1. Thanks for the update and good luck to the rest of us who stayed on the ship :-). The money I put in was money I can afford to loose or else it would stayed in where it came from …. the risk is mine to take . I know you doin everything you can so dont feel so terrible we live and learn .
    Lets just cross our fingers and hope it goes our way 🙂

  2. Thanks for the update.

    Actually a month ago, when deposited my money, did not expect that the situation might get so bad so fast. Anyway, I keep it there and accept whatever the outcome will be.

    You are human, an humans make mistakes. It is completely OK.
    Now it’s learning by the hard way. But what doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.

  3. Is it possible that Yellen wants the s&p500 to put a new all time high before tightening?. Technically it´s been looking scary for some time with that apparent lower lows around 1800. Not talking fundamentals here of course.

    In any case I´m sticking with you captain, hopefully all the quitters quitted already, and whatever happens, I´ve been learning a lot from you so I hope you keep sharing your views with us somehow!

  4. OK. Thanks for the summary of our battle plan. I guess tomorrow will be an incredibly important day. Can’t believe Carnage Carney is going to be the judge again.
    In the long term, the FED really needs to have a rate hike in June. And Brexit is for sure going to cause a Sterling weakness.

    I hope everyone is smart and realizes withdrawing now is useless. You’ll only recover 20% of your deposit. So don’t be stupid. We have one single chance to get 100% back of our deposit. If we fail, everyone will lose big time. Now is not the time to be selfish.

    I simply don’t agree with you not being fit to guard our money. I do believe you cannot rely on anyone or anything and that was a big mistake. However, your style is highly volatile and therefore depends on nobody withdrawing and that is currently our Achilles heel.
    So, if you start again in the future, ask HotForex or another platform to have a 1-year trading period and high penalties if someone withdraws.

    I hope you understand I will have to decline any future adventure as I have incurred too many losses in the past few months (potentially 9k of deposits). It wouldn’t be intelligent from my part, even though my emotional center trusts you for 100%.

    Pfff, what an unlucky day. Going for a very long run to clear my mind 😉

  5. Hi Mo,

    Thanks for the update and the summary of the plan and the reasoning behind it.

    Please don’t beat yourself up over this, as it was a possibility given the risks we have been taking. You have always been upfront and transparent about the risks and thus investing only money which can be lost.

    As a community we do have some ways to go, and if there is some way that non-trading tasks can be delegated so that you are free to only trade, that might help.

    Thanks for all you have done so far and please keep the knowledge flowing.

  6. Hello Mo,
    This is my first time of posting a comment here and believe me, you are good at what you do and honest too, irrespective of the outcome of the trades in the last 24hr. That’s why if our investment go down the drain, I will still add more fund for you to trade with on my behalf as long as you are interested in trading. I personally know it is NOT possible to win all of the trades you undertake all the time.
    Thanks for everything.
    Emeka.

  7. Bad luck Mo, looks like its game over and I imagine your feeling pretty low just now. Obviously not the outcome anyone wanted but don’t forget whilst we all invested with hopes of profit, equally we were all aware of the risk we took and we know you put significant effort into this venture and did all you good.

    All the best for the future,
    Arend

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