The question I’m asking myself right now is if there is a competition between the global central bank’s to see who can be the most inefficient and communication. How is it possible that no less than four central bankers state that the current flow of data means that the bank will have to act soon with possibly April being on the table, and then just a day later their governor Janet Yellen says the complete opposite.
I really don’t get what is going on with this central bank. They submitted their dot plot in December forecasting their inflation and growth estimates and their expectations to raise rates four times in 2016. Then in March, after all of their estimates have been outperformed by the data and inflation proves to be picking up months ahead of schedule, they cut their expectations to only two. This makes no sense to me. In addition it’s almost as if Janet Yellen is scared to increase rates again. She talks about her fears that inflation is not sustainable and there is no evidence of it continuing to rise, but it has been consistently rising for the last 15 months and unemployment has been decreasing which will put substantial pressure on wages and substantial upward pressure on inflation. If the Fed keeps delaying, it’s going to be left in a position where it is forced to raise rates and instead of a small increase of only 25 it might have to do a more significant increase catching the market completely by surprise and sending equities into oblivion. The Federal reserve has the market so confused at the moment that not even the Private payrolls employment figures that came out today and beat expectations could ensure any confidence in the dollar.
The situation is completely desperate at the moment and I am completely to blame for it. Nobody else and especially not the platform. The blame rests solely on my shoulders for behaving in a completely idiotic way. Being months ahead of schedule one would think that I would have been happy and satisfied and not taken risks, but being greedy I saw an opportunity for us to keep growing exponentially and I took it.
Firstly I acted on some bad technical advice which I believed gave us the perfect entry point given my fundamental outlook (without verifying it, since I am a complete fool) and that whittled away a significant part of our profits. In addition a few hours later Janet Yellen completely contradicted the other members of the Federal reserve sending the dollar to its lowest point since October 2015.
As many of you know usually I don’t see this as a setback as we have been able to headshot of the situations are no less than four previous occasions. Unfortunately this fifth time will be more difficult due to people withdrawing margins and leaving us with less firepower to react. This particularly cuts me deeply as I appeal to all of those who wanted to jump ship to do so last week. It seems that many of the people who insisted that they were completely committed decided to abandon us all when unity was the most important weapon in our arsenal.
Never mind. Sitting around and being miserable feeling sorry for myself won’t get us out of this situation. So we have one last plan which if executed without a single mistake will not only rectify this situation but also put us back into profit. We closed our USDCHF longs at a loss to free up margin giving us the ability to turn the account net neutral on the cable. At the end of the day sentiment in the market changes quickly and as more solid US data comes out and the UK referendum gets closer, I believe the cable will fall to new lows. So this plan is very simple and hopefully will work. We let our current cable buy turn even more green and set its SL in a safety Green zone and then wait for the cable to reverse its gains and ride it on the way down hopefully to profit. To summarise this is the last card (the weak ace in our sleeve). We quite simply have to catch the turn at the right time.
Regardless of whether this plan works or not ( if it works account deposits would be doubled by the time of the streets are closed), I will be calling it a day at the end of it. My foolish actions of the last 24 hours have shown that I’m not yet responsible enough to trade for other people and that as a group we are not mature enough to completely stick together. It seems that not everyone in this party understood that we all either have to swim together or drowned together. Every time things start to look at all bad, there are always a few who immediately scramble for the lifeboats leaving everyone else to drown. It’s this sort of selfish attitude that means we probably won’t be able to hatch out of this for a fifth time and will probably fail. Regardless of the odds being stacked massively against us, I will do my best. I owe everyone that stuck around that much for their support. Words can’t begin to describe how terrible I feel about letting everyone down. It was all going so well until 24 hours ago.