Updates

Update: 7th January 2016

Well what to say about today? It all fell apart. I had genuinely expected the risk aversion sentiment in the market to be slightly eased today. I could not have been more mistaken.

After being open for a grand total of 15 minutes this morning, the Chinese had to close their equity markets after they crashed 7.8%. This, as it would, made the markets panic and the safe haven bids commenced. The result? For a fourth consecutive day, the JPY defies the fundamentals of its weak economy (whose growth is among the most fragile in the developed world at this point in time, if not the most fragile) and strengthens against the other majors. If today has taught us anything, it is that concerns over Chinese growth are not going away and may persist until Chinese GDP is released on the 19th of January and possible even after that. I had hoped that positive employment data from the US would put everyone’s fears at ease, but clearly this is not the case. Of course, it also does not help that Oil also reached 14 year lows.

With regards to the account, despite all efforts to protect it with existing resources (and believe me we tried by closing our profitable trades etc over the last few days to free up equity), I am concerned that we no longer can and so I increased my original account equity by 35% to be able to get through this safely. I really do not want to have to worry about being a few pips within getting stopped, I have worried enough over this hobby of mine the last 6 weeks while watching it all fall apart after a series of unforeseen global events, economic and political have come in series one after the other to effectively derail fundamental rules.

There are people advising me to change my strategy, but I do not see that as a solution, I see that as the ultimate disaster and the only thing that could possible make things worse is breaking into a new routine that we are unfamiliar with. I will not do that just to make people happy. If we fail (and yes I realise we are circling the drain at the moment), I would rather it be done in a way where I can honestly say that I did my best rather than simply bending to pressure. With that said, if you feel that taking other measures can help, please feel free to implement them yourselves, I hope they do work for you. My approach is that I have deposited a little more (as mentioned above), will extend the SL’s comfortably far away and wait till this risk aversion passes and things return to reflect the true facts in the economy. Whether that start tomorrow with US employment, on the 19th with Chinese GDP or towards the end of the month when the BOJ revises its inflation outlook downwards, I do not know. However, I do know that like all disasters and turbulence, this will pass and I am positioning myself to capitalise on that. As things return to normal, I will shorten the Sls and initiate multiple trades on a weekly basis, as I used to before we got locked in at mid-December. At this point, I see this as the best course of action available to me.

Sorry that this could not be more positive news, I really hope I can stop posting doom and gloom soon. After 6 weeks, it is getting depressing,

Mohammed

12 Comments

  1. Hi Mohammed,

    I had to close the CHF trade just to keep my JPY trade alive.
    Thank goodness there was a bit of recovery and hope that we can be up again on positive soon. If it is meant to be, it will happen as we can not control things that are beyond our grasp.
    Thanks
    Bassam

  2. Hi Mo, Unfortunately as a late copier of yours my account hit 95% SL overnight. I did not just have a few dollars invested, but I must say as a relatively new etoro investor I am learning all the time and that was the whole purpose of this for me. Anyone who thinks they can make a fortune overnight is very naive. Even though my copy hit its SL, which was my fault entirely, I have copied you again with a smaller amount as I too believe in your strategy and hopefully it will reap rewards for you and all your faithful copiers. Keep up the good work, stick with your faith, keep us all informed and lets enjoy the ride !

  3. Thanks again for Your update. You’re wright, to stay with your strategy as You need to be comfortable with it. Everyone can do his own steps to protect his equity, either to cut the position or to hedge for a fey days.

    Let’s hope!

  4. Hello Mo,

    Agree it can be depressing after many weeks with red numbers and also see followers suffering. But Im so glad you choose to stick to you strategy and for now I just think you have been really unlucky. You just continues to impress me with your fundamental skills and for sure I will keep following you till my account says enough (hopefylly it lasts through this storm)

    Have a nice day and thanks for the update! πŸ™‚

  5. Hi Mo,

    Thanks for your open and honest assessment, it’s much appreciated. I’m extending SL’s on my own trades as I believe these trades will bounce back, but sadly no end in sight πŸ™ With regards to my copied positions, Ive put more money into them but am not currently able to put in your recommended 35%, What SL were you going to put on for the GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF? The trades I have with you are currently at 160 and 1.4 respectively. I only ask as I have not put the full 35% in as I had to prop up other trades. We’ll look to weather this one mate πŸ™‚

  6. Hello Mohammed,

    Tough times indeed, but if you can’t stand the heat, don’t stand in the kitchen… Not quite clear on what CSL figure I should be watching. On the mobile app you’re in 80ish percent DD, but on browser it shows only 15%. I’m inclined to follow the 2nd number as it is calculated based on funds invested only (while it seems the mobile app is calculated on funds invested + max ‘profit’ generated at one point). Anyone know for sure?

    Whatever happens its another lesson learned, it is clear that since dec 3rd, markets have not been exactly cooperative, but if this game were easy, we’d all be millionnaires!

    Have a good evening Mo and thanks for the opennes as always

    1. Asked today to Etoro staff, the new app doesn’t work properly. Use chrome or other to enter in new etoro and save to desktop in your phone. i did that and then delete the app.

  7. Honest words spoken are always appreciated mate, it has been a rough ride. I’ve had other positions closed due to this gloom around the Chinese markets, which was completely unexpected.

    Still believe in your strategy and I believe we will get through this storm through your strategy.

    Stay strong.

    Regards,
    Rakesh

  8. Chinese circuit breaker suspended! Huge volatility expected on opening tomorrow. Guess yen, Chf, and gold will be further strengthened. Just keeps getting worse.

  9. I can tell you as someone who has been through some serious drawdowns, they have always come back. Unfortunately for me, I almost always capitulated at a point where there seemed to be no hope. That was usually the turn around. Stay strong Mo and thank you for your efforts.

  10. Yes Mohammed, I am with you in that, Keep your strategy. My opinion is every time I reconsider my strategies in other things in life and take unfamiliar advised strategies by others I find my self out of the game. so I believe everyone should stick to his/her own strategy and apply some tweaks from time to time as person develops.

    Mohammed, kindly I wanted to make sure of something concerning the HotForex PAMM account, I opened a new account using your link/URL and get my account approved, they called welcoming me and verified few things with me, and what I liked the most is that they already knew that I have signed up to them by you, so they asked my about my strategy and whether I am going to choose you as a manager and I was like YEAH! =) they mentioned you with really good things and I respect them for that as you deserve more than that =) Anyway, I wanted to know whether it’s a good time to enter and invest under you? should I start now? the whole process should be completed within the following 02 days.

    Thanks Mohammed

    Your Egyptian brother from Algeria,
    Mohamed.

Leave a Reply