Good morning. No work today, so I get to bore you all with a morning update or outlook. Things look a little better. I suspect dollar strength to resume today and build up even more at the start of next week.
I do not really see any surprises from Europe.
US Retail Sales show be firm.
I think risk aversion will be more relaxed today, however there is still the risk of further downside in commodities.
USDJPY is nicely in the green. I believe that it will continue advancing and our only threat now is if there are further falls in oil prices.
GBPCHF continues to recover. We had set backs yesterday due to a Doveish BOE but I see no reason why this pair can not continue to recover and approach our target. Bear in mind that this position was planned for the longer term and does not cost to keep open, so I have no issue with it staying open as long as it does not compromise our account. That said, in all honesty did I expect it to drop to 1.4820 the other day? No. If I knew that would happen, like any logical person I would have TP’d at 1.5120 and waited, however how was I to know that oil would crash to a 7 year low the next day? Despite these people who all claim to “know things” the day after they happened, I tell the truth and say at that point in time, I had no clue. P.s. Funny that many of those people who “knew” did not sell oil….
NZDUSD sell is starting to recover a bit but is still bad. This is an unlucky position for me. Its been green and red more times this week than the traffic lights on my street. Its a stubborn one, but a stronger USD should give this position some relief.
To all the people saying the trend has reversed, no it has not. It is funny how many of you experts say this about every currency pair every other day. I am sure you wish it would reverse since you have been stuck with buys since 0.75 but think about the following:
People may have repositioned but think about the following. One bank is lowering rates and one is about to higher and continue raising. Which currency would you really rather own?
At the end of the day your wishful thinking will not move the market. The market will do what it wants.
Do nothing for the rest of this trading day. This really sounds like a terrible plan, but there is logic to it:
1.) We have plenty of active trades with 45% of our porfolio actively engaged in the market.
2.) The only theme I can see as with it is USD strength, but I do not want to add to my USD exposure till I close some of my positions.
3.) No point in trading just for the sake of trading.
4.) I want to see what is happening with commodities. I am really worried about these price drops. If they continue at this rate, there will be no raise in rates next week and we have to revise our fundamental views. Something I really do not want to have to do before a new year…
So unless something of significance happens, I will not open any new trades today on Etoro. Instead I will focus on CFDs and Options.
On a positive note, I see more and more people actually interacting and trying to have fun. It is really nice to see support now every time someone takes a cheap shot at me. I think it is also brilliant that Etoro has 20 more Itachis running around. I think it will do some good for the community as its times when things go bad that we need to keep positive and keep trying to do our best. If we can not always at least try to have fun when we earn, then what is the point of any of it? Why earn and be miserable 😉
Unfortunately as always there will always also be “low quality personalities” to put it politely. For example, it is amazing how someone can copy you for a month, make lots of greens and never says so much as thank you. Then spends one day in slight red overall and starts accusing you of being a liar who tells people to wait things out for months and who is losing the plot. Very poor attitude from a people who fail to realise that I do not owe them a thing. They owe me.
Incidentally this person is still over 2% in profit from copying me at the time of writing this but as soon as the block feature gets implemented on Etoro (Annie says its in the pipeline), will be blocking all of these people. Imagine if they lose the plot over 3 temporarily red trades imagine I think that trading is not good for their health. These people maybe are panicking and risking money they can not afford to trade with. News flash for everyone, and I mean this kindly. If a temporary 3% unrealised loss is going to make you panic so much, then you probably are investing money that you can not afford to be investing. Sorry, but that is the way I see it. Also newsflash for these geniuses, while this month has been a disaster for me, we are only a few percent down overall and we are very likely to recover in the very near future. If you think this is catastrophic, then what do you think of the thousands of other people locked in with other accounts who have been running at 60-80% losses for the last few months? Everything is relative.
Also a note, the most lame excuses and tricks I have seen recently on social trading networks and what they really mean. I figured you could all use a laugh:
1.) The “Big boys are playing with us”: Really means we have no idea what is going on but lets pretend its a conspiracy. Usually used by amateurs who want to pretend they manager millions.
2.) The “hike is already prices in”: Really means we hope it wont move the market. Interestingly enough, the gang saying this were saying up until last month that it would never happen and that they knew better than the FOMC. Sure…..
3.) “Draw down is part of my strategy”: Really means I messed up and entered the trade at the wrong time but I do not want to be honest as I may look bad.
4.) “The balance is……”: Really means since real profit (equity) is down we will make it look good by pretending unrealised losses are not losses at all. News flash, if its not money that can be in your hand right now, then its not really money is it?
5.) “I am a CFA, Pro Fund Manager”: Really means I have no qualifications and experience.
6.) What are your favourite ones? Comment below please.