Updates

Weekly outlook for week commencing Monday 1st February 2016

God it is good to be able to use a keyboard again. Blogging from an Iphone is more tedious than it sounds. Anyway without further delay, I would like to share with you some of my views for the upcoming week:

China, from pain to pleasure?

One of the things that kicked off the massive sell offs in January was the Caixim Manufacturing PMI surprising markets with its softness. This month, things may be a little different. The timing of Lunar New Year holidays have the consequence of possible stronger factory output. Should this the case, it will add to the confidence emanating from firming oil prices and reinforce the impression that the turmoil of January is not representative of the year ahead. This could in turn have investors giving second thoughts to US tightening prospects, to the benefit of the USD.

March off the cards for the FED? Don’t jump to conclusions Yet!

Many have counted March out citing similar reasons that many used to say December would not happen. While I agree, that March may be less likely now, I will not rule out an increase. Some others may change forecasts very often, but I prefer consistency. Until we see the results of the NFP on Friday and hear
Fed Yellen’s testimony to congress later this month. It is too early to rule anything out. At least in my opinion.

AUD to weaken?

There will be AUD weakness when the RBA meets. In spite of opinions that the RBA will hold rates at present levels (90% chance they will), I expect softness from their statements. I believe that they will not want the AUD to value more than its current level as it kills their exports. Expect dovish of statements, even if the bank decides to hold. If chinese data is firm, it will bost the AUD due to the trade relationship between the two, creating the perfect situation to get sells in at higher levels.

Relief for pound imminent? Not likely but it will come soon.

The BOE inflation report is out this week. The BOE is expected to show that inflation has grown slowly and are likely to revise down their growth expectations for 2016. However, their growth expectations will still be well above 2% and I feel their inflation figure, while still far from their target (of 2%)will not be as soft as many expect. I have explained why in previous posts over the last few days, so do not wish to repeat myself again.

Sentiment on the UK is still also weak due to BREXIT concerns (not fully priced in as I believe it should also be affecting the Euro far more. After all, is the EU without the UK still so formidable?) and due to lack of trust in the BOE.

With that said, I am not too worried about our GBP bull positions at the moment, since:

1.) they cost nothing to keep open.

2.) Due to a dozen other green trades in Janaury, we have the firepower for more trades if needed.

3.) I expect the JPY and CHF to weaken further in the medium and longer term. So falls in the cable should not affect us as much, and our positions may still gain.

Euro to run out of steam? I think so.

Following the devaluation of the jpy, the EUR is currently stronger than the ECB would like and that is hurting exports. While the ECB do not meet until March , when I am sure they will take further action, expect Draghi to do his upmost in public speeches to weaken the currency.

Trade plans for the week?

Will take a wait and see approach till after Chinese manufacturing PMI data comes out tomorrow. (Both the official and the Caixan). This is very important as it is at the start of the week and will set the tone ahead of the BOE and RBA central bank meetings and the US employment data.

If all goes as planned above, then I will be looking to capitalise on EUR weakness, JPY weakness and AUD weakness over the week at appropriate times. I believe that these will be the themes and will be looking to exploit these with both options and trades.

Will also consider making some plus500 cfd’s buys on Japanese equities as I feel the market still has not appreciated how much they have the chance to rebound due to growth fueled by increased exports due to a cheaper yen and cheap capital expenditure provided by cheap loans. Again, Chinese data is the key here. Provided that it is not poor, Japanese equities will perform well in February on these two fundamental factors.

Personal Targets to achieve by Q1 2016 (April 2016):

I know that if I publicly declare these, then I will do my best to stick to them, so here it goes. Please note some of my goals have been delayed for obvious reasons, but I never abandon a project. Its not really in my nature to quit.

1.) Close Etoro account at a gain and move on.

2.) Start my social account up on anyoption (it already exists and is funded).

3.) Have a section of the site dedicated to plus500 equity trade ideas. (You can read more about this from my posts on the forum in December 2015).

4.) Expand this community.

An ultimate fantasy to achieve by the end of 2016:

To be able to do this full time. Will never know if I do not try.

Hope you all had a great weekend, and I really hope next week works as planned for us,

Mohammed

33 Comments

  1. Hi Mo 🙂 I am copying you on etoro , been copying since December, I want to keep copying and want to do so on HotForex(maybe best ,since closing etoro ) , is it the same principal and copy option as on etoro ? I am novice trader and want to copy you and learn more as time goes bye 🙂 Hope your weekend was good in Scandinavia 🙂 Best regards from Leon, Norway 🙂

    1. Hi Leon,
      Scandinavia was lovely. I hope to see it in Summer. HF is the same in principle only it has no open book and more instruments to trade,

      Regards,

      Mohammed

  2. Hello all. I appreciate Mo is a busy man so he doesn’t always have the time to reply, but it would be much appreciated if someone could help me with setting up the hot forex account as I don’t really know where I’m supposed to look to copy mo. My email is (hidden)
    Looking forward to another weeks trading and if you were to do this full time Mo that would be incredible! Thank you again =)

    update: removed your email so spambots dont get it.

  3. Hi Mo and thanks for the post 🙂
    You didnt say anything about Hotforex, I guess you will continue also there?
    Thanks again for your good communications to your followers!

    1. Hi,
      Thanks for the compliment. Yes, I hope to continue on our initial success there and work up to greater things over the next 2 years there,

      Regards,

      Mohammed

    1. Hi Bjorn, as soon as my current sterling trades are closed (in the mean time, as i have been doing, will open new trades when the opportunity arises), but my aim is to be able to walk away with all trades closed between now and the end of April. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

  4. Hi
    I have recently joined etoro and been copying you on demo account.
    Could you, please, explain the reasons for leaving etoro?
    If it’s because of the people bashing you for those bad moves you made, wouldn’t be wiser to stay, to show integrity and rebuild reputation? As far as I know, it is not uncommon from traders to shift to another broker after they make a few bigger mistakes and lose followers. Despite the events, many on etoro still trust your skills, you are still one of the traders, who have the most of copyers money under control.

    Kind Regards

    1. Staying and rebuilding and then leaving. Why should I let people who insult my religion, wish cancer on me or threaten me with death to make profits my labour? And for months many of them made ridiculous sums from my work.
      I was even considering moving months ago when I got annoyed with spam etc when things are going well. I was promised a block feature since November (a feature that never came). I have had the support team there manually block my account many times (as many here know) for reasons they could not give and have even been told to trade less and aim for 3% returns alone.
      If you think this decision is only motivated by two bad trades, then you clearly do not know my character at all. Maybe others change their account names etc or go silent, im still there as Ohemgee and still updating and trading daily. Ive been blogging daily in good times and bad and have not chosen to hide with new accounts etc.
      Yet somehow you feel you have the right to tell me about how i should have integrity etc when you are not aware of even half the story.
      P.s. I could care less for numbers of followers there. I refused to join the PI program for months until i was given an ultimatum for it in December. Anyone who has been following me for a while knows the full story. Even etoro staff cleared it up publically and confirmed the truth when trolls falsely accused me of making a fortune there…
      I am planning on leaving for a better program with more instruments, more reliability, better spreads, better regulation, more control over who can copy me and the ability to not have to read 2000 spam messages a day. And I am doing this AFTER having admitted my mistakes and continuing to attempt repairing the account and concluding business on there. What part of that lacks Integrity? At the end of the day its my choice to. I could have easily just walked away and not said another word. 99% of people do. Anyway you are free to draw your own conclusions.

      1. Thanks for clarifying things. I didn’t know about the issues happening behind the scenes.
        Anyway, I didn’t mean to offend you, even if the wording might have evoked that.

        Good luck

    2. P.s. I posted in back in December that with things going the way they were, I was planning to extend SL’s and deposit more if need be. I advised those that could not do so, that they could chose to risk it or cut their losses. If they chose to ignore that advice and trust it to luck, is the mistake still 100% mine?

      This is the problem when you have a community of people that are not informed of investment risks properly. They think 2000% returns come with 0% risk. In short, they do not know what they are getting into and in most cases can not even be bothered to find out. That is the unfortunate nature of the community there. I will do far better without the distractions and will have a clearer frame of mind knowing that the people with me understand the risks.

    1. Hi Hesham
      I put it on the minimum that they would allow me which was $500, I have seen other accounts though with $200 amount, so I have asked support about how come some others have lower minimums than m,

      Mohammed

  5. Hi, can you post a link with instructions how to join you on HF? I’ve tried to open the link you have added to another blog post but i am redirected to HF home page…

    1. You can sign up from that link to make an account. Once you have, you can open a PAMM investor account from which you can choose a your fund managers and how much you wish to copy with etc.

  6. Hello Mo ,
    please if its not a problem for you inform us one week early ,when you decide to close the Etoro account ,so we will be able to withdraw our money from there and invest them in the HF account .
    I am asking for this because as u know they dont send money very fast .
    Thanks in advance !

  7. Hi , sorry for making stupid questions 🙂 I have made an account on HotForex , I have uploaded documents , and waiting for confirmation for this to be ok , I am now not able to log into HF Social Platform,,, I guess this is the place to find you and copy you , am I right ??

    1. Nope. You have to make a PAMM investor account with them (it should be fast now that you have a main account). Then you can pick your fund manager. I.e. Ohemgee invest. Hope this helps,

      Mohammed

    2. Leon

      As Mo said, it’s not the Social Platform.

      From Seaheaven’s guide:

      1) OPEN HOTFOREX ACCOUNT
      2) GET yourself validated
      3) OPEN with “other services” PAMM account
      4) After confirmation PAMM account , you need to SWITCH regulary agency to be able to use the PAMM function
      5) FUND the account with the other regulary agancy = FSC and NOT CySec
      6) find Mo his PAMM Account = ohemgeeinvest and join / register and than fund it with the money you used to fund the normal account from agency FSC

      -Rune

  8. Thanks for great update as always.

    I also understand your reasons for leaving etoro. The fact that they couldnt make a block feature is crazy as long as the allow all kinds of kids and bullies to act around.

    What concerns me a bit is that the pamm account (to my understanding, havent got my account opened yet) doesnt allow us to see the trades and act on them real time. We can only get updates once a day.

    If this is correct they whole plot will be very much more like just investing and then come back from time to time to see how it goes. In etoro we can monitor all the time and opt out of a trade if we feel like it.

    Anyway, cheers!

    1. I get your concerns about etoro, but I would like to chip in. I think despite not having a platform like etoro, you can get a pretty good idea about how Mo trades based on the available resources. Obviously, it might be a bit more complicated than just sitting back and watching etoro, but if you’re dedicated to learn, you will find your answers here.

      As for the trade ideas, he always shares them on here on sundays. If he opens other trades during the week, he will let you know through twitter (or you can just ask) and explain the strategy on twitter or in the blog.

      Money management wise, it’s no secret that the correlation is generally about 10% of investment with 50x leverage.(5% with 100x leverage etc).

      For the strategy and how to trade, he published some lessons and will (hopefully) continue to do so in the near future.

      You can also use sites like babypips that help you with your forex knowledge.

      Finally, there is the community and it would be great if now that things are getting back on track we can help each other out and share our success/losses.

      But the main thing I want to say is that it is not an easy route, and it is YOU who has to do the main work. With all the available resources here, you should be able to do your own trades based on some basic analysis. Of course, some of the trades will not work out, but we’re all in the same boat and we’re all learning. Also, I found that Mo is more than willing to give you advice and help if you have some (constructive) questions.

      Happy trading.

      1. p.s. you all have a great opportunity here with an excellent teacher so cut loose a bit (etoro was kindergarten) and get your own thing going.

  9. As far as I understood the HF account, is to compound over 2 years with a gain of about 4 – 6% per week. This account is all about trust, trust that he will gain profit, not that of high risk and being able to get some reward for his hard work (only 10% of the profit he is making). As far as I understood the comment above, there is going to be an other account later, as EToro is in profit again. And if there is not going to be an other account, with higher risk and gain, I will raise my funds in the existing HF account. Anyway, thanks for the update, thank you for keeping us all informed.

  10. Hi Mo,
    seems you returned good home! Thanks again for keeping us informed last week even though you need to blog from your mobile!
    Looking forward to your lessons. They give so much valuable information.
    Hope WE are having a successful week!

    Thomas

  11. Hi Mo, I really wanted you to stay on eToro but after all the bad stuff that happened to you (I Just read the comment you posted and I never thought it was that bad) I believe that’s the best decision to take, now I understand why you want to leave eToro and after all is all up to you, I will start copying you on eToro probably tomorrow and once you close your eToro’s account I will be moving my funds to HF, I really appreciate what you are doing it’s great to have the option to copy you. I will do what you say on the blog and post a picture of some nice vacations I’ll take with your help.

  12. @Mo: Thank you for another informative update! 🙂
    @all interested in joining Mo at HF: as far as I know it isn’t possible to transfer money from a “normal” (CySec regulated) HF account to a (FSC regulated) PAMM account, so you may want to make sure that you only fund your account AFTER switching to FSC.

  13. Hello Mohamed, how is difference to follow you on Hotforex/PAMM and anyoption? Will you trade there similar and also with the same budget? Or do you will invest more in one of these platforms?

  14. … also, had some problems to fund the account because the first two credit card options didn’t work for me.

    If you have any problems or questions don’t hesitate to use the support chat. They are very good and really help with all your problems.

    (was able to fund the account with the third credit card option)

  15. Mo, HT Forex is the only way how to copy your trades or is there any other way (anyoption maybe)? Is HT Forex is still open so I will be able to join you? Please reply if possible. Many thanks!

    1. Really hope you don’t close HF for new investors before you finish up in Etoro. I will move over whatever’s in there when you’re done, and it’s not looking too shabby atm 🙂

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