Updates

Weekly Scenarios for Week starting Monday 30th November 2015

First I wish to say to maxfaye1 Happy Birthday.

Second I wish to highlight the events of the following week for you:

In Europe:

General consensus is that ECB will at the very least lower the overnight deposit rate from -0.2 to -0.3% thereby forcing banks to increase their volume of loans. The Euro is very likely to be sold off in with this in mind and Draghi’s comments that the ECB will “do whatever it takes to bring inflation to its target” still fresh in the mind of investors.

In the US:
At the same time, US has its NFPs out on Friday, and the number is expected to be firm at 200k. However, it is becoming apparent that now even if the number is not firm, it would have to be a disaster to make the FED delay its rate hike. So even if it slightly dissapoints at the end of the week

In Australia:
The RBA is likely to hold rates (I deduce this from reading their monetary policy and hearing their members speak, no further rate hike ), and the countries GDP is expected to be firm showing 0.7% growth for the quarter and 2.3% growth year on year, this will support it towards the end of the week.

In China:
PMIs are out early in the week and should they dissapoint, it should give risk aversion in the market a strong boost, thereby boosting the JPY (This could also happen if Russia and Turkey continue to have their war or words).

In Canada:
The bank of Canada are expected to hold, on top of that GDP is expected to show 2.3% quarter on quarter growth. Expect CAD strength this week as highly probable.

Trade ideas:

4 new ones this week, might post on forum. Maybe, maybe not. Still inner conflict over this one.

But will say this for the good of the community, EURUSD will be VERY volatile this week. If Draghi doesn’t make the markets happy, expect a massive jump. If he makes them happy, expect a dive towards 1.0450 or lower. Friday could also be chaotic for this one. Trade with caution and Good luck everyone.

9 Comments

  1. Portfolio looking in excellent shape already this morning Mo, thank you once again. It looks set to be a lively week. I follow your analysis with interest and hope to absorb more and more as we go on – I’m not sure I could ever replicate your style and conviction though. I’ve added a little slush fund to play around myself, whilst under your wing. Much appreciated.

  2. Thank you Mohammed for the scenarios. I will do my best to fully understand them and use the info in my trading. (baby steps 😀 ) All the best to you and wishing you a fruitful week!

  3. Thank you for the scenarios. I will do my best to fully understand them and use the info in my trading. (baby steps 😀 ) All the best to you and wishing you a fruitful week!

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