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What I should have done differently

In hindsight we were doomed to failure and only my arrogance made me not see what I should have seen. On four previous occasions we had massive drawdowns which we managed to recover from, but instead of me getting swollen headed and bragging about how we pulled it back in spite of the market going against us and the withdrawals, I should have stopped trading then and there and opened a new account to ban all the people who withdrew in times of drawdown before opening a single other trade. In short I should have actually paid more attention to the fact that these withdrawals put us in danger in the past and not just blindly assumed that everyone who would have ran, ran away the first time. Words can not describe how sorry I am for making this mistake or how stupid I feel looking back at it today noticing how even an idiot would have spotted it the first four times it happened.

Many people are encouraging me to start again and not give up and in truth I am grateful for all those messages here. But the truth is this last experience has showed me one thing, that the community has a few vipers in the grass that ruin it for everyone else. Then when they feel like idiots 24 hours later, seeing how the market is back in our favour they make up vile lies. Its almost as if these greedy individuals are mad at themselves and need to rant to feel better. Poor things do not realise that telling a lie to yourself doesnt make you feel better, its actually bad for you.

Here are some of the new accusations hurled against me in the last 24 hours:

1.) That I made a deal with HF to blow the account on purpose. Well if you believe this after seeing all my time, effort, sweat and stress on constantly fighting for every single penny and pulling it back every previous time, then you probably believe the earth is flat as well. In addition, HF is not a MARKET MAKER, they are an EDN. They actually lose if we lose and cant trade anymore.

2.) That the withdrawals had no effect on the margin and the people were just rescuing their funds and did not hurt everyone else and are being demonized as scape goats. Well this is just plain idiotic, it actually made me laugh when I read it the first time. In the first place, I said it was my fault 100%. But at the same time saying withdrawals do not effect margins is like saying that if you have $1000 in the bank and you withdraw $950 that your balance is not $50, its still $1000. People are not stupid. Nobody is gonna believe that lie!

3.) Then we have some of the people who withdrew claiming that they did not and acting full of support only to lose the plot when their lies unravel. Guys, here is the thing about lies. The truth always comes out in the end. All it takes is one slip up. Its much easier to say the truth first time round.

4.) Finally we have the dozens of people who all lost “10k or more”. Well if this were true, we would have had a balance of $1 million before we even opened our first trade. Period. Incidentally all of the people who had more than $1,000 invested, and you could count the number on both hands, have not complained and have actually offered messages of support and all of them kept their word and stayed right till the end.

I am sure there are many more lies which I have missed and although 95% of you say ignore the clowns, it’s very hard for someone who has been honest, open and tried his best and never failed to communicate to see his name pulled through the dirt by the same people who betrayed us all and left us to drown. It actually makes me very angry that after everything I did for these people, they have such a nerve. Ungrateful traitors. I really hope Karma serves them a nice plate of justice. Although with their attitudes, they will never succeed in anything they do. They are too cowardly and dishonest. Again, I may have been the captain of the ship when we hit the iceberg but these people are the ones who ran away with all the lifeboats. That is really how I see it and it tells me all I need to know about these people – I use the term politely.

Now I do not want to quit or give up on my dream which literally, would still be in the worlks if only the ship jumpers had waited another 24 hours (that is the painful part for me, and probably more painful for the greedy people who abandoned us) and I am grateful to those that stuck around and who believe in me and say I should try it again with a locked account with only the trustworthy involved, but in all likelihood the following would also result in a failure unless the following conditions were met:

From the Broker:

  1. The account had fixed spreads.
  2. The account had a miniumum 12 months trading period with a MASSIVE withdrawal penalty, if an entire lock in is not possible.
  3. The account was password locked (and nobody in the group leaked the password).
  4. We only allowed in people who did not withdraw, I can see who did and who didnt from the HF Ids.
  5. The account being Sharia compliant and not having to pay spreads – not compulsory but would be a bonus.

From my part:

  1. To lock the community down and even make the entire blog members only (for free of course, we do not solicit or ask for donations and never will), so we don’t get undesirables interfering.
  2. To literally only communicate ideas and updates via the blog so as to not be influenced by suggestions.
  3. To make sure only people who read this blog and communicate are allowed in. In fairness this was another mistake pointed out to me today, that the vast majority of people in the PAMM never communicated with us and in effect we don’t know who they were.

From the community:

  1. Everyone who participates to basically agree that they will commit to the pledge they made that we are all in this together for 2 years. How hard can it be to stick by your word? In all honesty if you are scrambling to withdraw a few hundred dollars in a moment of panic, then you should not be high risk trading online in the first place. Period.

If these conditions can not be met, then there is no point in me ever even considering trying again with Social Trading as we will quite simply meet the same fate. In fairness reflecting on the last 24 hours, with high risk, we are always going to come into situations of big drawdown and if people will always run, then even if we survived this time, whats to gurantee we wouldnt have died the next time or the time after? Without knowing that our resources are constant how can one possibly manage money properly. Its like you open a hedge, then the next morning you are forced to close it because people have withdrawn and margins have gone down.

Now this is not a promise from me that I will try again, but the fact is there is still a meeting with HF in 4 days after they do their EXPO here and I do not want to cancel it. I may be my one chance to actually accomplish what it is that I am trying to do and I will be a fool to let it slip, so I will ask them for the conditions above. With that said, I am no longer in a position of power to barter with them, so taking some advice from a few of the guys on twitter, I am putting the following survey below. If you are interested in doing an account with the conidions mentioned above, please fill it in. If I go to them with enough proof of support, I might be able to get what we want and then should we decide to try again, it would give us the system we all want. One that incoporates all the lessons learned from our mistakes:

You can find the survey here: CLICK THIS LINK

I hope to hear some feedback at least, but given the circumstances, I will not hold it against any of you should I not.

Mohammed

2 Comments

  1. It seems you were faster in posting your thoughts than I was able to finish my comment on previous post. 🙂 I post it anyway, even if it’s similar to your opinion.

    I am another one of those who had above 1k invested. I expected it could hopefully double or triple the value of the investement in given timeframe (rather conservative expectaion).

    I had felt much more scared during the first drawdown period in March, but interestingly when it was about to crash, didn’t feel such pain. I think accepted, it’s part of the game. I’m not happy about it, but it was calculated risk.

    I suspect, we all have our responsibility in the outcome:
    1. Mo, by letting yourself to trade in an environment under constant danger of burning the account due withdrawals, you actually based the safety of the account on assumption of certain personal values. I read everywhere that even the best trading system falls short on emotions. In this trading environment it was not only your emotions which triggered this failure, but emotions of those, who withdrew.
    2. We should have voiced our potential concerns early from the beginning and strongly insisted that you find a viable solution with HF quickly. Or ask you to stop until it’s sorted out. Instead, we mostly just sat and hoped for the best.

  2. Mo. I had only $500 invested but it was there for the duration and from the start.

    I’ve said it before to you and I’ll say it again.
    I love what you do, your analysis and openness and integrity are beyond question. The integrity of how you handle yourself is what attracted me to you as a trader on etoro and what attracted me to follow you to HF and other platforms.

    But I, for one, don’t care about this point-scoring and back-talking against your “competition” – the “Recession Kiddies”. I couldn’t give two hoots what they’re saying or how you differ from them. All I care about is your analysis, how we’re doing and why we’re doing what we are doing.
    It’s like politics. U.K. Politics at least. They spend far too much time trying to belittle the other party, score points and guffawing when all we care about is someone making real decisions, hard decisions at the right time and for the right reasons.
    I know you can make those decisions. We’ve all seen you make them time and again and come out smelling of roses.

    It was unfortunate that one wrong decision spelled the end, and the withdrawals underlined that. But I don’t think there’s any way in which you can insure against that, apart from us handing over the cash to you to play with as your own. And I would consider that option, because above all of this, your integrity and honesty shines through.

    The Community Aspect is what seems to be troublesome. You trade for feedback like an artist plays a stage. That’s how it appears to me. It takes balls and guts to stand up there in front of us all and play your chords and when you hit a few bum notes there are always going to be a few hecklers.

    Don’t judge the crowd by the noisiest individuals though. The majority of us are quietly enjoying your performances.

    Best of luck with the next attempt though Mo. I’m not sure they I’ll be in a position to take part though. I know it’s risky. I know it’s only for those that can afford to lose money. But FX for me so far has been an expensive hobby. And I’ve enough of those already!

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